第
30
卷
摇
第
1
期
张
摇
颖
,
丁
摇
妍
:
人口红利推高中国房地产价格了吗
?
Has Demographic Dividend Driven up China蒺s Real Estate Price
?
—
Driving Mechanism and Empirical Test
ZHANG Ying & DING Yan
(
Economics and Management School
,
Southeast University
,
Nanjing
,
Jiangsu 211189
,
China
)
Abstract
: Demographic dividend has a deep impact on a nation蒺s economic growth and urbanization, and indirectly domi鄄
nates the long鄄run development of real estate market. This paper gives a theoretical analysis of the internal driving mechanism of
demographic dividend upon real estate price. On that basis, with a collection of the panel data of population and real estate price
from 1999 to 2011 in China蒺s provinces, using the fixed鄄effects panel model and panel vector auto regression (PVAR) model to鄄
gether with path analysis, this paper studies both direct and indirect mechanisms in which how demographic dividend causes the
increase in real estate price, as well as the short鄄term and long鄄term impacts of demographic dividend on housing price. The re鄄
search reveals that demographic dividend can push up the real estate price directly, and through investment and credit in real
estate as well as other intervening variables indirectly. Additionally, the impact path shows a U鄄shaped relationship between mort鄄
gage and housing price.
Key Words
: demographic dividend; real estate price; transmission mechanism; PVAR model; path analysis
(
本文责编
摇
邓
摇
艳
)
(
上接第
92
页
)
Influence of Negative Reviews from Online Consumers
and Merchant Replies upon Potential Consumers
ZHENG Chundong, GUO Weiqian & WANG Han
(
Tianjin University
,
Tianjin 300072
,
China
)
Abstract
: Brand attribution and communicator attribution can make different effects on consumers蒺 purchase intention.
High鄄quality negative reviews from online shopping consumers can make potential consumers produce high level of brand attribu鄄
tion, which reduces potential consumers蒺 purchase intention. While merchants蒺 efficient replies to high鄄quality negative reviews
from online consumers can replace consumers蒺 negative reviews and become the leading information, which can reduce consumers蒺
brand attribution level and further increase consumers蒺 purchase intention. When negative comments from online consumers and
merchant蒺s replies exist simultaneously, the reply information can get more attention from customers according to consistency di鄄
mension and distinctiveness dimension, which can become the leading messages in potential consumers蒺 information processing.
Meanwhile, the level of consumers蒺 brand attribution can be influenced by ego鄄involvement.
Key Words
: negative review from online consumer; merchant reply; brand attribution; communicator attribution; reaction
time
(
本文责编
摇
王
摇
轶
)
·711·
