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Can
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An Empirical Study and A Theory Based on the OLG Model
KUAI Pengzhou & ZHANG Lili
(
School of Business
,
Beijing Technology and Business University
,
Beijing 100048
,
China
)
Abstract
: Such developing countries as China are perplexed by population aging, but evidence from traditional aging coun鄄
tries shows that population aging does not necessarily lead to economic crash. According to the literature review, the fact can be
explained from a perspective of coordination of individual behaviors. Based on these, an OLG model with endogenous population
aging is constructed to study the adjustment of individual behavior in population aging process. Meanwhile, an empirical study is
carried out with the time - series data from France. The results show that increase in life expectancy can lead to the increase of
saving rate, time spent on working and human capital accumulation. The increase in life expectancy also leads to fertility rate de鄄
creasing first and increasing afterwards. The result also shows that population aging can have positive impact on GDP per capita,
which can help China understand correctly and deal with effectively the challenge brought about by population aging.
Key Words
: population aging; the adjustment of individual behavior; GDP Per capita; OLG model; generalized pulse esti鄄
mation
(
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