Page 13 - 《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第2期

北京工商大学学报(社会科学版)摇 摇 摇 摇 2020 年摇 第 2 期

剧了出口需求的萎缩。 同时,内需不足、需求疲软 名义 GDP 增速同步,但在经济下行时,货币供应
等问题没有切实有效的扭转。 另一方面,供给侧 量增速应略高于名义 GDP 增速。 在经济下行时,
结构性改革,新旧动能转变迟滞。 转变传统发展 名义 GDP 增速在下降。 如果货币供应量增速与
方式,淘汰高耗能、严重过剩的产能刻不容缓,但 下行中的 GDP 增速同步,则推动了经济下行,而
新动能的替代又有严重的不确定性。 这两方面对 不是纠正它。 因此,在经济下行阶段,我国应该考
我国经济的稳增长提出了严峻挑战。 虑适当放弃货币供应量 M2 增速与名义 GDP 增
2020 年我国宏观政策可能在稳增长方面的 速同步。
力度要更大一些,包括财政政策和货币政策。 应
参考文献:
采取更积极的财政政策,加快财政结构性改革。
从货币政策上看,货币政策要适度宽松,要减少对 [1]刘伟,蔡志洲. 如何看待中国仍然是一个发展中
国民经济带来不利影响的、快速发展的低效率项 国家? [J]. 管理世界,2018(9): 1 - 15.
[2]刘伟,蔡志洲. 我国工业化进程中产业结构升级
目。 有些国家意图通过牺牲我国的经济质量,放
与新常态下的经济增长[J]. 北京大学学报(哲学社会科
缓我国的转型,促进世界经济走出金融危机。 他
学版),2015(3): 5 - 19.
们要求我国刺激国内市场,对世界经济增长担当
[3]刘伟,苏剑. 供给管理与我国现阶段的宏观调控
更多的责任。 但目前我国对世界经济增长贡献已
[J]. 经济研究,2007(2): 4 - 15.
经很大,每年增长 30% 左右。 因此国内要谨慎对 [4] 刘伟. GDP 与发展观———从 改 革 开 放 以 来 对
待这种意图,采取松紧适度的货币政策。 GDP 的认识看发展观的变化[ J]. 经济科学,2018(2):
此外,之前我国坚持货币供应量 M2 增速与 5 - 15.

On How to Deal with the New Contradictions and

Challenges Facing China蒺s Economy

LIU Wei
(Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)

Abstract: Since China became the second largest economic entity in the world and announced the full withdrawal from the
anti crisis expansion policy, the macro鄄economy has entered into the “New Normal冶 era, shifting from high鄄speed growth to medi鄄
um鄄high鄄speed growth. Currently, China蒺s economy is facing a series of new contradictions and challenges, which are embodied
in the three overlapping macroscopic contradictions, three structural microscopic contradictions, the challenges of middle income
trap domestically and Thucydides蒺 trap internationally. Among them, macroscopic contradictions refer to the three overlapping
contradictions: shift period of growth rate, painful period of structural adjustment, and digestion period after the anti鄄crisis. Mi鄄
croscopic contradictions refer to the three major structural contradictions between the internal supply and demand of real economy,
between real economy and financial currency, between the development of real estate sector and the development of other sectors
of in national economy. At the same time, the “stagflation冶 is more likely to occur in China蒺s economy. In a long run, double
risks may coexist with both inflation and economic “downturn冶. In order to resolve the new contradictions and meet new challen鄄
ges faced by China蒺s economy, the nation has clearly established the five鄄sphere integrated development goals (i. e. “economic,
political, cultural, social and ecological progress冶) to set up the totally new idea of “innovative, coordinated, green, open and
shared development冶. China promotes actively the supply鄄side structural reform, together with proactive fiscal policy and prudent
monetary policy to achieve the sustainable and stable economic growth. In particular, the nation has abandoned the synchroniza鄄
tion of M2 growth rate of money supply and nominal GDP growth rate to correct the downward pressure on China蒺s economy.
Key Words: New Era; three periods superposition; structural contradiction; stagflation; double risks; solution strategy
(本文责编摇 王摇 轶)

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