北京工商大学学报
(
社会科学版
)摇 摇 摇 摇 2014
年
摇
第
4
期
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A Study of the Influence of Urban鄄Rural Income Gap on Economic Stability
———
An Empirical Analysis Based on 1978 - 2011 Macro Data
LI Chang蒺an, SU Lifeng & LI Fang
(
University of International Business and Economics
,
Beijing 100029
,
China
)
Abstract
: This paper builds a deviation index of economic stability, describing steady economic growth, based on the analy鄄
sis of time series data from 1978 to 2011. We emphatically analyzes intrinsic connection between urban鄄rural income gap and eco鄄
nomic stability since the reform and open up policy by using Johansen co鄄integration test and VECM? model. The study shows
that urban鄄rural income gap obviously impacts the steady economic growth. In the long run, income distribution disparity based
on measuring ratio of the income of urban and rural residents has certain positive effect on steady economic growth, namely, eco鄄
nomic growth will be steadier and such reaction lags while the income distribution gap gradually widening. In the short term, the
widening of the income disparity will aggravate the economic fluctuations. Thus the economy tends to be subject to economic ups
and downs. It means that the impact of income gap on economic stability may present an inverted鄄U relationship generally. The
findings above have strong policy implications.
Key Words
: urban鄄rural income gap; economic stability; VECM model
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