Page 88 - 北京工商大学学报社会科学版2018年第6期

第 33 卷摇 第 6 期 王文清, 傅绍正, 赵摇 慧: 管理层预测能力、环境不确定性与盈余管理

cost of equity capital: evidence from management earnings nomics, 1986, 8(1): 53 - 71.
forecasts[J]. Journal of Accounting & Public Policy, 2011, [20] GOODMAN T H, NEAMTIU M, SHROFF N, et al.
30(4): 348 - 366. Management forecast quality and capital investment decisions
[14] 王艳艳. 管理层盈余预测与权益资本成本[J]. 厦 [J]. The Accounting Review, 2014, 89(1): 331 -365.
门大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2013(5): 114 -123. [21] 赵慧,胡国强,张俊民. 管理层盈利预测包含了
[15] 王玉涛,王彦超. 业绩预告信息对分析师预测 公司投资质量信息吗? [ J]. 中南财经政法大学学报,

行为有影响吗[J]. 金融研究, 2012(6): 193 - 206. 2017(2): 98 - 105.
[16] KRISHNAN G V, PEVZNER M, SENGUPTA P. [22] 潘飞,石美娟,童卫华. 高级管理人员激励契约
How do auditors view managers爷 voluntary disclosure strate鄄 研究[J]. 中国工业经济, 2006(3): 68 - 74.
gy? The effect of earnings guidance on audit fees[J]. Journal [23 ] ROYCHOWDHURY S. Earnings management
of Accounting & Public Policy, 2012, 31(5): 492 - 515. through real activities manipulation[J]. Journal of Account鄄
[17] 廖义刚,邓贤琨. 业绩预告偏离度、内部控制质 ing & Economics, 2006, 42(3): 335 - 370.
量与审计收费[J]. 审计研究, 2017(4): 56 - 64. [24] 叶陈云,谢志华,杨克智. 股权分置改革、会计
[18] KASZNIK R. On the association between volunta鄄 稳健性与盈余管理研究[J]. 北京工商大学学报(社会科
ry disclosure and earnings management[ J]. Journal of Ac鄄 学版), 2012(4): 64 - 71.
counting Research, 1999, 37(1): 57 - 81. [25] 黄梅,夏新平. 操纵性应计利润模型检测盈余
[19] TRUEMAN B. Why do managers voluntarily re鄄 管理能力的实证分析 [ J]. 南开管理评论, 2009 (5):
lease earnings forecasts? [J]. Journal of Accounting & Eco鄄 136 - 143.

Management Forecasting Ability, Environmental

Uncertainty and Earnings Management

1 1 2
WANG Wenqing , FU Shaozheng & ZHAO Hui
(1郾 School of Accountancy, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222, China;
2郾 School of Accountancy, Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin 300134, China)

Abstract: The accuracy of earnings forecast is influenced not only by earning management, but also by managements蒺 fore鄄
casting ability. What蒺s more, the persistent accuracy of earnings forecast not only reduces the noise of earnings management but
also reflects managements蒺 forecasting ability to a certain degree. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between
managements蒺 forecasting ability and earnings management and the moderating effect of environmental uncertainty using the data of
China蒺s A鄄stock listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the years from 2010 to 2016.
We use the average accuracy of the previous three years蒺 earnings forecast to measure the forecasting ability of management. We
find that the lower the managements蒺 forecasting ability, the stronger the motivation of management for earnings management, the
higher degree of real earnings management and accrual earnings management. In addition, the degree of environmental uncertain鄄
ty could enhance the significance of the relationship between managements蒺 forecasting ability and earnings management. This re鄄
search shows that the persistent accuracy of earnings forecast can transfer the company蒺s earnings quality information, which will
help alleviate the reliability of performance forecasts that policymakers and regulators have been worried about.
Key Words: managements蒺 forecasting ability; earnings management; earnings forecast; environmental uncertainty; earn鄄
ings forecast; information content
(本文责编摇 王沈南)

· 8 3 ·