第
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How Volatility Affects Long鄄term Growth
?
———
Evidence From China蒺s Provincial Data
CHI Jianyu
1
& ZHAO Jiazhang
2
(
1. School of Economics and Management
,
Communication University of China
,
Beijing 100024
,
China
;
2. School of Economics
,
Capital University of Economic and Business
,
Beijing 100070
,
China
)
Abstract
: This paper tries to put two main themesof macroeconomics, short鄄term fluctuations and long鄄term growth, into a
unified framework, to set up a two鄄way fixed effect model, and to verify the impact of short鄄term fluctuations on the long鄄term
growth by applying the data from 1978 to 2012 of 30 provinces. The result shows that: short鄄term fluctuations of provinces have
both positive and negative effects on long鄄term growth; policy, market, uncertainty of technology and system may cause volatility;
and compared with the uncertainty of policy, market, especially the uncertainty of international market is more likely to cause vol鄄
atility. In order to stimulate long鄄term growth, government should construct a macro environment to enhance technology innovation
and to reduce volatility.
Key Words
: The short鄄term economic volatility; long鄄term growth; degree of dependence on foreign trade; macropolicies
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