Page 119 - 《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第4期

北京工商大学学报(社会科学版)摇 摇 摇 摇 2020 年摇 第 4 期

Household Over鄄indebtedness: Measurements and Characteristics

Based on Analysis of Chinese Household Micro鄄survey Data

WU Kun, WANG Jin & ZHAO Yuechao
(School of Economics, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149, China)

Abstract: The reasonable household debt can enhance the total utility of life cycle through consumption smoothing, but o鄄
ver鄄indebtedness will affect the sustainability of the debt. This paper reviews the existing studies on the definition and main meas鄄
ure methods of household over鄄indebtedness, and determines the objective measure index for Chinese household over鄄indebted鄄
ness, including burden index of debt repayment and poverty index of debt service families. On that basis, with the micro鄄survey
data of China蒺s urban households conducted by China Financial Research Center, Tsinghua University, on the basis of the subjec鄄
tive measures in family economic pressure, with the help of a contingency table to find out the six objective measures, this paper
further investigates the basic features of over鄄indebted households. The research has found that: (1) The threshold value of over鄄
indebtedness identification index is 50% 45% and 40% respectively according to debt service rate, adjusted debt service ratio
and housing loan payment rate in terms of over鄄indebtedness identification index; (2) The threshold value of over鄄indebtedness i鄄
dentification index is 30% , RMB Yuan 2300 and USD 1. 9 respectively based on relative income poverty line, absolute income
poverty line and absolute consumption poverty line; (3) The factors such as household net asset and income condition, demo鄄
graphic characteristics, areas of location, etc. have significant impacts on over鄄indebtedness behaviors, but the effects show the
obvious heterogeneity in different indicators. The research conclusions provide the empirical evidences for the objective evaluation
on China蒺s household over鄄indebtedness, which is of important guiding value to the structural optimization of leverage in household
sectors.
Key Words: household debt; over鄄indebtedness; subjective measure; objective measure; debt service ratio; poverty line
(本文责编摇 王沈南)

(上接第 102 页)

Risks and Investor Confidence in Online Lending
Industry Based on Baidu Search Index

ZHANG Zhiying, TIAN Xiujuan & ZHANG Haiyang
(School of Banking and Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

Abstract: In recent years, the frequent incidents concerning the risks in the online lending industry have adversely impacted
the investor confidence and behavior. Based on the operation data of 176 P2P platforms during the years from 2015 to 2019 and
Baidu Search Index, this paper empirically tests the impact of risks in the online lending industry on the investor confidence. The
empirical results show that the risks in the online lending industry has a significant inhibiting effect on the investor confidence in
the online lending. With the increase of risk index in online lending industry, the “risk compensation冶 demanded by online lend鄄
ing investors is higher and higher. Among them, the risk perception by online loan investors is an important way to investor confi鄄
dence in online lending. At the same time, the online lending investors have more confidence in the online lending platforms with
more standardized risk control and governance, such as fund depository management, ICP registration, risk mitigation mecha鄄
nism, etc. and they demand much lower “risk compensation冶. The research results indicate that the regulatory authorities should
consummate the system of information disclosure in P2P industry, require the industrial compliance development in a normative
way, establish the early warning mechanism in public opinion on online lending, and guide the investors to establish the rational
risk perception and resolve the extreme risks.
Key Words: risks in online lending industry; P2P platform; investor confidence; Baidu Search Index; investor behavior;
risk compensation
(本文责编摇 王沈南)

· 1 1 4 ·