北京工商大学学报
(
社会科学版
)摇 摇 摇 摇 2015
年
摇
第
3
期
Do Aging and Low Birth Rate Affect the Consumption of
China蒺s Rural Residents
?
—
Empirical Study Based on Static and Dynamic
Spatial Panel Models
CHEN Xiaoyi
1,2
(
1. School of Statistics and Mathematics
,
Central University of Finance and Economics
,
Beijing 100081
,
China
;
2. School ofInformation and Statistics
,
Guangxi University of Finance and Economics
,
Nanning
,
Guangxi 530003
,
China
)
Abstract
: Based on provincial panel data in the yearsfrom 2000 to 2012, this paper explores the impact of population aging
and low birth rate on the consumption of China蒺s rural residents by constructing static and dynamic spatial panel models. It con鄄
cludes that both aging and low birth rate have a positive and significant impact on rural residents蒺 consumption, with the former an
even stronger impact. As to the positive effect of agingupon rural residents蒺 consumption, it can be explained by the pension sys鄄
tem in rural regions and elderly people蒺s health status. As to the positive effect of low birth rateupon rural residents蒺 consumption,
the reasons lie in the change ofchild鄄rearing conception and the increasing cost of raising children. To solve the problem of slug鄄
gish rural consumption, it is necessary to make all鄄around arrangements to improve both social welfare and productivity.
Key Words
: aging; low birth rate; rural residents蒺consumption; spatial panel model
(
本文责编
摇
王
摇
轶
)
(
上接第
101
页
)
Investors蒺 Preference
,
Decision Criterion and Portfolio Optimization
SUN Chunhua
1
& LI Lasheng
2
(
1. School of Statistics and Mathematics
,
Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics
,
Hohhot
,
Inner Mongolia 010070
,
China
;
2. Shool of Science and Engineering
,
Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
,
Tianjin 300222
,
China
)
Abstract
: Under the uncertainty, due to the non鄄computability of expectation, limitation in the comparison of action result,
and bounded rationality of individual investors, the traditional decision鄄making model cannot show its delicacy in investment prac鄄
tices. Hence, the complex decision鄄making of uncertainty comes back to the discussion of decision鄄making technology, prefer鄄
ence and decision criterion. Firstly, this paper discusses how certain preference and satisfaction criterionare formed for the inves鄄
tors who are of bounded rationality. Secondly, it builds aSatisfaction Criterion and Riskmodel based on VaR and CVaR to study
respectively the obvious optimal solutions and its efficient frontier of the model in the assumptions of normality and less abnormal
distribution. Finally, Normality Transition and Satisfaction Criterion and Risk modelare testified to be an effective method to esti鄄
mate the risk and choose the portfolio in China蒺s stock market via some real data.
Key Words
: certainty preference; satisfaction criterion; normality transition; portfolio optimization
(
本文责编
摇
王
摇
轶
)
·621·
