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北京工商大学学报(社会科学版)摇 摇 摇 摇 2020 年摇 第 4 期

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Rethinking on Impact of Real Estate Price upon Investment in

Manufacturing Industry from Perspective of Time鄄varying Analysis

1 2
Nguyen Thithuha & LUO Xueyun
(1. School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
2. Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, New York 14850, USA)

Abstract: Under a relative loose monetary policy, the housing prices are soaring in the recent years, which leads to many
investments in the real estate industry instead of in the manufacturing industry. Such impact on manufacturing industry is one of
the problems for China to face up in the economic development. After the analysis of related impact path, based on the TVP鄄
VAR鄄SV model, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the housing price fluctuation on the investment in manufacturing in鄄
dustry. The results show that the housing price increase has an obviously negative impact on the investment in manufacturing in鄄
dustry, especially after one year or so it amounts to the maximum. As time goes by, the stronger the housing price fluctuation,
the more obvious such negative effect. The financing that companies gain from the stock market has not flowed into the manufac鄄
turing industry but mostly flows into the real estate market in pursuit of high revenue. The rising housing prices brought by expan鄄
sionary monetary policy make the monetary policy nullified in its regulatory effect on the investment in manufacturing industry.
Based on the research conclusions, it is proposed to control the housing price expectations, promote the industrial transformation
and upgrading, and reduce the dependence of economic growth on real estate.
Key Words: time鄄varying parameter; housing price; manufacturing investment; stock market; monetary policy; infrastruc鄄
ture investment

(本文责编摇 王摇 轶)

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