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Income Uncertainty and Household Consumption:
An Empirical Study on Housing Price as Threshold Variable

YAN Xingyu & XU Shidao
(Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China)

Abstract: The report of the 19th National Congress has made it clear that consumption should play a fundamental role in e鄄
conomic development. However, China蒺s current consumption level is relatively low, and income uncertainty is one of the impor鄄
tant reasons. Using quantile regression and threshold model by setting housing price as the threshold variable, this paper exam鄄
ines the impact of income uncertainty on household consumption in different housing price interval? in China ranging from 2003
to 2016. Quantile regression shows that income uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on household consumption. The
threshold regression result further shows that in the interval of low and high housing prices, income uncertainty has a significant
inhibitory effect on household consumption and in the range of medium housing price, income uncertainty has a significantly stim鄄
ulative effect on household consumption. Therefore, the construction of a perfect housing supply and demand market, the imple鄄
mentation of stable income distribution policies and tax policies and the reversal of the current housing fund mismatch can effec鄄
tively promote the current consumption.
Key Words: income uncertainty; resident consumption; house price; quantile regression; Threshold Model

(本文责编摇 邓摇 艳)

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