人工智能、金融监管与系统性金融风险——基于双重机器学习的因果推断

Artificial Intelligence, Financial Regulation, and Systemic Financial Risks —Causal Inference Based on Double Machine Learning

中文关键词:  人工智能  系统性金融风险  金融监管  双重机器学习  自编码器  广义随机森林

英文关键词:artificial intelligence  systemic financial risks  financial regulation  double machine learning  autoencoder  generalized random forest

中文摘要:

      把握人工智能重塑金融监管的历史机遇,前移系统性金融风险防控关口,是筑牢金融安全屏障、提升金融治理效能的战略支点。基于2010—2023年中国263个城市的面板数据,以国家新一代人工智能创新发展试验区建设为准自然实验,采用双重机器学习模型,探究了人工智能发展对系统性金融风险的影响及作用机制。研究发现,人工智能发展降低了系统性金融风险。机制分析表明,人工智能发展通过增强城市数字创新能力、赋能金融监管,进而降低了系统性金融风险。异质性分析结果表明,上述风险缓释效应在中部地区、西部地区和东部地区城市,以及一、二线城市和非资源型城市中更为突出。因此,要加快推进人工智能发展,筑牢人工智能自纠与风控双重防线,以人工智能驱动金融监管数智化转型,有效遏制系统性金融风险,夯实常态化治理根基。 

英文摘要:

      Seizing the historic opportunity presented by artificial intelligence (AI) to reshape financial regulation and adopting a forward-looking approach to the prevention and control of systemic financial risks represent strategic imperatives for building a solid financial security barrier and enhancing the effectiveness of financial governance. Using panel data from 263 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2023 and exploiting the establishment of national new-generation AI innovative development pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs a double machine learning (DML) model to examine the impact of AI development on systemic financial risks and the underlying mechanisms. The results show that AI development mitigates systemic financial risks. Mechanism analysis indicates that the mitigation effect operates mainly by enhancing urban digital innovation capacity and empowering financial regulation. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the risk mitigation effect is more pronounced in cities located in the central, western, and eastern regions, as well as in first-and second-tier cities and non-resource-based cities. Accordingly, policy efforts should focus on accelerating AI development, establishing dual AI guardrails for self-correction and risk control, advancing AI-driven digital and intelligent transformation of financial regulation, effectively containing systemic financial risks, and consolidating the foundation for regular governance.