经济波动视角下居民消费惰性:基本事实及政策涵义

Household Consumption Inertia from the Perspective of Economic Fluctuations:Basic Facts and Policy Implications

中文关键词:  消费惰性  经济波动  消费政策  扩大内需  数字经济

英文关键词:consumption inertia  economic fluctuations  consumption policies  expanding domestic demand  digital economy

中文摘要:

      提升居民消费水平是一国经济发展的原始动力和终极目标,从经济周期的视角研究居民消费与GDP之间的相对变动关系,有助于揭示居民消费的相对惰性特征。基于中国1978—2024年的年度和季度数据,通过HP滤波分解GDP、居民消费数据后的周期项标准差,以此测算单一周期不同阶段内它们的相对波动性。研究结果显示,进入21世纪以后,中国居民消费具有一定程度的惰性特征。具体而言,在经济下行阶段,居民消费波动小于经济整体波动,消费扮演着经济稳定器角色；在经济上行阶段,居民消费的相对波动性大于经济下行阶段。值得注意的是,数字经济的发展深刻影响着居民消费波动和消费结构的变化。因此,中国消费政策的制定要以把握消费演进规律为前提,因势利导；同时,要遵循消费惰性的阶段性特征,做好消费政策的阶段性衔接,并重视发展数字经济,以充分发挥好消费对经济增长的基础性作用。

英文摘要:

      Enhancing household consumption is both the fundamental driver and ultimate objective of economic development. Analyzing the relative change relationship between household consumption and GDP from a business cycle perspective contributes to uncovering the relative inertia characteristics of household consumption. Drawing on China's annual and quarterly data from 1978 to 2024, this paper obtains standard deviations of cyclical components after decomposing GDP and household consumption data by the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and measures their relative volatility in different stages of a single cycle. The findings indicate that since the 21st century, China's household consumption has displayed a certain degree of inertia. Specifically, during economic downturns, household consumption fluctuates less than the overall economy, acting as a stabilizer; during upturns, household consumption shows greater relative volatility. Notably, the development of the digital economy has significantly influenced both the volatility and structure of household consumption. Therefore, China's consumption policies should be grounded in an understanding of consumption evolution patterns and adapt to emerging trends accordingly. Simultaneously, these policies need to recognize the stage-specific characteristics of consumption inertia, ensure continuity across policies, and place greater emphasis on developing the digital economy to fully leverage the foundational role of consumption in economic growth. 