新质生产力发展视阈下全要素生产率对财政空间的影响研究

Impact of Total Factor Productivity on Fiscal Space Based on the Development of New Quality Productive Forces

中文关键词:  新质生产力  全要素生产率  财政空间  财政反应函数  政府债务  债务可持续性

英文关键词:new quality productive forces  total factor productivity (TFP)  fiscal space  fiscal response function  government debt  debt sustainability

中文摘要:

      在地方隐性债务高企、地方财政亟待发力、各级政府收支能力下滑的背景下,探索全要素生产率(TFP)对中国财政空间的影响,有助于挖掘提升政府财政调控能力的新思路,明确政府发展新质生产力的财政效应。在理论分析的基础上,利用中国1980—2021年国别时间序列数据和省域面板数据,创新性地将TFP纳入财政反应函数中,实证分析了政府债务负担率与财政可持续性之间的关系。研究结果表明,将 TFP 纳入其中可以改善对中国财政反应函数的拟合效果。财政反应函数揭示了中国“财政疲劳”的开始,但也凸显了一定的财政空间。无论中央政府还是地方政府,提高TFP均可以有效提升政府债务的均衡点,扩大财政空间,进而改善财政状况。因此,各级政府应坚定高质量发展的长期方向,加快形成新质生产力,带动全要素生产率的大幅提升,为财政政策的制定奠定良好的宏观基础。

英文摘要:

      Against the background of high levels of implicit local government debt, an urgent need for local fiscal efforts, and declining revenue and expenditure capacity of governments at all levels, exploring the impact of total factor productivity (TFP) on China's fiscal space can help identify new paths to enhancing fiscal governance and clarify the fiscal implications of developing new quality productive forces. Building on theoretical analysis, this paper innovatively incorporates TFP into the fiscal response function by utilizing China's national time-series data from 1980 to 2021 and provincial panel data to empirically examine the relationship between government debt ratios and fiscal sustainability. The results show that the incorporation of TFP enhances the fitting of China's fiscal reaction function. This function reveals the emergence of “fiscal fatigue” in China and demonstrates the presence of a certain degree of fiscal space. For both the central and local governments, enhancing TFP can effectively raise the debt equilibrium point, expand fiscal space, and thereby improve fiscal conditions. Accordingly, governments at all levels should remain committed to the long-term objective of high-quality development, accelerate the cultivation of new quality productive forces, and substantially enhance TFP to lay a robust macroeconomic foundation for the formulation of fiscal policies. 