国家自主贡献方案与全球农产品进出口

Nationally Determined Contributions and Global Imports and Exports of Agricultural Products

中文关键词:  气候变化  国家自主贡献方案(NDCs)  农产品进出口  市场准入成本  产品生产成本

英文关键词:climate change  Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)  imports and exports of agricultural products  market access costs  product production costs

中文摘要:

      农业是全球第二大温室气体排放源,农业减排是应对气候变化的重要途径。基于2000—2022年全球218个经济体的农产品进出口数据,从全球气候政策的关键组成部分——国家自主贡献方案(NDCs)出发,检验了应对气候变化措施对全球农产品进出口的影响及作用机制。研究发现,首次提交NDCs会导致提出方短期内农产品的出口减少和进口增加,但长期内上述效应有所减弱。机制分析结果表明:首次提交NDCs能够使提出方增加有机农业、减少农药使用,进而从消费需求端降低市场准入成本；同时,增加农业研发投入和农业环保援助,进而从生产供给端降低产品生产成本。异质性分析发现,上述效应在对外开放程度和对内发展水平更高的经济体中更显著。因此,首次提交NDCs的经济体应积极落实方案的重大进展,倡导多元化的农业可持续发展战略,充分发挥有机农业模式、农药减量增效、政府研发投入和环保援助资金的减排降碳作用,巩固应对气候变化政策的现有成果。

英文摘要:

      Agriculture is the second-largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, making agricultural emission reductions a crucial path to addressing climate change. Drawing on the imports and exports data of agricultural products from 218 economies worldwide from 2000 to 2022, this study investigates the impacts of climate change mitigation measures, specifically Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a key component of global climate policies, on global imports and exports of agricultural products and their underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that the first submission of NDCs emporarily reduces agricultural exports and increases imports among submitting economies. However, these impacts tend to diminish over time. Mechanism analysis reveals that the first submission of NDCs promotes organic farming and reduces pesticide use, thereby lowering market access costs from the demand side. It also stimulates greater investment in research and development (R&D) and environmental aid, which reduces production costs on the supply side. Heterogeneity analysis further uncovers that these effects are more pronounced in economies with higher levels of opening-up and domestic development. Therefore, economies submitting their first NDCs should proactively ensure significant progress toward these contributions. They should advocate for diversified strategies for sustainable agricultural development and fully harness the role of organic farming practices, pesticide reduction and efficiency enhancement, government R&D investment, and environmental aid funds in emissions reduction and decarbonization to consolidate the existing achievements of climate change mitigation policies. 