中国宏观经济安全风险的测度与评价研究

Measurement and Evaluation of Macroeconomic Security Risks in China

中文关键词:  宏观经济安全风险  评价体系  ICRITIC-VHSD方法  空间特征  地区差异  驱动因子

英文关键词:macroeconomic security risks  evaluation system  ICRITIC-VHSD method  spatial characteristics  regional differences  driving factors

中文摘要:

      当前正值百年未有之大变局之际,经济安全作为中国国家安全体系的重要组成部分,成为社会各界广泛关注的重点问题。立足经济发展基础、对外贸易、投资、金融、房地产五个维度,构建中国宏观经济安全风险的综合评价体系,采用改进的指标重要性相关法与“纵横向”拉开档次法相结合的ICRITIC-VHSD方法,测算了2011—2022年中国31个省份的宏观经济安全风险。研究发现:(1)中国宏观经济安全风险大致呈现“增—减—增”的波动态势和“东高西低”的特点；(2)各省份的宏观经济安全风险大致呈现空间正相关性,且宏观经济安全风险趋向于高水平转移,该风险转移存在空间效应；(3)中国宏观经济安全风险的总体差异大致呈现逐步减小的趋势,各区域的组间差异是宏观经济安全风险差异的主要来源；(4)就宏观经济安全风险的驱动因子而言,两因子交互作用的解释力均大于单一因子。因此,在推动中国区域经济发展的同时不可忽视经济安全的风险因素,应在全国范围内统筹规划经济发展与经济安全,实现更大程度的区域协调发展。

英文摘要:

      In the context of major changes unseen in a century, China's economic security, as a crucial component of national security, has emerged as a focal issue drawing extensive attention. This study establishes a comprehensive evaluation system for China's macroeconomic security risks based on five dimensions:economic development fundamentals, foreign trade, investment, finance, and real estate. Using the ICRITIC-VHSD method that integrates an improved criteria importance through intercriteria correlation method with a vertical and horizontal scatter degree method, itcalculates the macroeconomic security risks across China's 31 provincial-level regions from 2011 to 2022. The results are as follows. (1) China's macroeconomic security risksgenerally exhibita “rise-fall-rise” fluctuating trend and display a spatial characteristic pattern of “high in the east and low in the west”. (2) Macroeconomic security risks among provincial-level regions roughly demonstrate a positive spatial correlation.These risks tend to shift towards higher levels, exhibiting a spatial effect. (3) The overall interregional risk disparity has gradually diminished, with between-group differences being the primary contributor to variations in macroeconomic risks. (4) Regarding risk driving factors, the explanatory power of two-factor interactions consistently surpasses that of single factors. Therefore, while promoting China's regional economic development, the risk factors associated with economic security cannot be overlooked, and a nationally coordinated approach that balances economic development with economic security is crucial for achieving higher-level regional coordinated development. 