中国碳市场成熟度测度、区域差异及演进特征

Measurement, Regional Differences, and Evolution Characteristics of China's Carbon Market Maturity

中文关键词:  “双碳”目标  碳市场成熟度  区域差异  演进特征  高质量发展

英文关键词:carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals  carbon market maturity  regional differences  evolution characteristics  high-quality development

中文摘要:

      碳市场成熟度能够反映各地区在碳减排、能源高效利用以及经济高质量发展等方面的综合表现,是助力实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的重要支撑。基于1995—2022年省级面板数据,采用灰色系统理论和距离协调模型,从相对发展度、相对协调度、相对协调发展度三个维度分析中国碳市场成熟度水平,并考察碳市场成熟度的区域差异和演进特征。研究发现:第一,中国碳市场成熟度整体呈上升趋势,但协调性不足。第二,碳市场成熟度水平存在显著的地区差异,而且地区间差异是总体差异的主要来源,尤其东部与西部的差距最为明显,东部地区在碳市场发展水平和协调性方面表现优异,西部地区碳市场成熟度水平较低,中部地区碳市场发展水平逐步提升但存在不均衡。第三,中国碳市场相对发展度呈现显著的σ收敛趋势,各地区碳市场发展的差距逐渐缩小,但相对协调度不存在σ收敛性；中国碳市场成熟度指数存在显著的β收敛趋势,在长期内趋于均衡发展。因此,应加强统筹规划,建立长效发展机制,推进碳市场的制度化和规范化建设,因地制宜引导各地区制定差异化的协调发展和减排计划,提升碳市场的协调性。

英文摘要:

      Carbon market maturity reflects the comprehensive performance of regions in carbon emission reduction, efficient energy utilization, and high-quality economic development, serving as a critical foundation for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Using provincial panel data from 1995 to 2022, this study employs grey system theory and a distance coordination model to analyze China's carbon market maturity across three dimensions:relative development level, relative coordination level, and relative coordinated development level. It also examines the regional differences and evolution characteristics of carbon market maturity. The findings are as follows. First, China's carbon market maturity exhibits an overall upward trend, but coordination remains inadequate. Second, significant regional differences exist in carbon market maturity, with inter-regional differences being the primary source of overall differences. The gap between the eastern and western regions is particularly pronounced, with the eastern region excelling in carbon market development and coordination, the western region lagging behind, and the central region showing gradual improvement but with uneven progress. Third, the relative development level of China's carbon market exhibits significant σ-convergence, indicating a narrowing gap in carbon market development across regions. However, the relative coordination level does not show σ-convergence, suggesting that inter-regional coordination requires further improvement. The carbon market maturity index demonstrates significant β-convergence, indicating a long-term trend toward balanced development. Therefore, it is imperative to strengthen overall planning, establish long-term development mechanisms, promote institutional and standardized construction of carbon markets, and guide regions to formulate differentiated coordinated development and emission reduction plans based on local conditions to enhance carbon market coordination. 