共建“一带一路”倡议与中国服务贸易出口:因果识别与机制分析

The Belt and Road Initiative and China's Service Exports: Causal Identification and Mechanism Analysis

中文关键词:  共建“一带一路”倡议  服务贸易  产业结构升级  贸易网络扩张  贸易互补性

英文关键词:the Belt and Road Initiative  service trade  upgrading of industrial structure  expansion of trade network  trade complementarity

中文摘要:

      随着“一带一路”合作机制日趋成熟和合作网络日益完善,中国服务贸易迎来更有利的发展契机。通过构建多期双重差分模型,采用2006—2021年中国对世界180个国家(地区)的服务贸易出口数据,实证考察了共建“一带一路”倡议对中国服务贸易出口的影响及作用机制。研究发现,相较于非共建国家,倡议显著促进了中国对“一带一路”共建国家的服务贸易出口,且通过推动中国与共建国家产业结构优化升级、促进中国与共建国家服务贸易网络扩张拉动了服务贸易出口增长。异质性分析结果表明,共建“一带一路”倡议对中国非传统服务行业出口的促进效应较传统服务行业更大,对高进口需求国家以及同中国存在强服务贸易互补性国家服务贸易出口的促进效应更显著。因此,在共建“一带一路”倡议的宏观框架下,中国应加强与共建国家在服务业领域的深度合作与交流,完善多层级的全球伙伴关系网络,推动服务贸易快速发展。

英文摘要:

      As the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation mechanism matures and its network expands, China's service trade has gained increasingly favorable development opportunities. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model and data on China's service exports to 180 countries and regions from 2006 to 2021, this study empirically examines the impact of the BRI on China's service exports and its underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that the BRI significantly boosts China's service exports to BRI countries compared to non-BRI countries. This growth is driven by the optimization and upgrading of industrial structures and the expansion of service trade networks between China and BRI countries. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the BRI exerts a stronger facilitating effect on China's exports in non-traditional service sectors compared to traditional ones, and a more pronounced effect for countries with high import demand and strong service trade complementarity with China. Therefore, under the macro framework of the BRI, China should deepen cooperation and exchanges with the BRI countries in the service sector, enhance multi-tiered global partnership networks, and accelerate the development of service trade.