家庭负债、数字经济与居民消费

Household Debt, Digital Economy and Household Consumption

中文关键词:  家庭负债  数字经济  居民消费  流动性约束  财务脆弱性

英文关键词:household debt  digital economy  household consumption  liquidity constraints  financial fragility

中文摘要:

      基于中国居民部门杠杆率急速攀升的现实与构建“双循环”新发展格局的背景,利用2017—2019年CHFS数据,从流动性约束与财务脆弱性的角度研究了家庭负债、数字经济对居民消费的影响及作用机制。研究发现:家庭负债上升会抑制居民消费增长,且通过加剧家庭的流动性约束和财务脆弱性抑制了居民消费增长；同时,家庭数字经济参与程度的提升可以通过缓解家庭的流动性约束和财务脆弱性减少家庭负债对居民消费增长造成的负面影响。异质性分析发现,只有在高金融素养、家庭成员有商业保险、低社会资本的家庭中,提高家庭数字经济参与程度才有助于缓解上述负面影响。因此,应在增加信贷供给的同时防范家庭过度负债和金融风险,大力发展数字普惠金融,并建立健全社会保障体系,提高居民家庭的金融素养水平,以提振居民消费。

英文摘要:

      In light of the rapid increase in household leverage ratios in China and the context of establishing a new development pattern of dual circulation, this study utilizes the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data from 2017 to 2019 to examine the impacts of household debt and the digital economy on household consumption from the perspectives of liquidity constraints and financial fragility and its mechanisms. The study reveals that increases in household leverage ratios inhibit the growth of household consumption, primarily by intensifying liquidity constraints and financial fragility; a higher level of household engagement in the digital economy can mitigate the adverse effects of household debt on consumption growth by reducing these liquidity constraints and financial fragility. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that only among households characterized by high financial literacy, possession of commercial insurance, and low social capital does an increase in household engagement in the digital economy effectively mitigate the aforementioned adverse effects. Therefore, it is essential to increase credit supply while simultaneously preventing excessive household debt and financial risks, vigorously advance digital inclusive finance and establish and improve the social security system to enhance the financial literacy of households, thereby stimulating household consumption. 