国内大循环与产业链韧性

Domestic Circulation and Industrial Chain Resilience

中文关键词:  国内大循环  产业链韧性  产业关联  前向关联  后向关联  投入产出表

英文关键词:domestic circulation  industrial chain resilience  industrial linkage  forward linkage  backward linkage  input-output table

中文摘要:

      在新发展格局下提升产业链韧性,需要正确认识国内大循环在其中发挥的重要作用。基于亚洲开发银行编制的多区域投入产出表(ADB-MRIO),测算了2007—2021年中国行业层面的国内大循环程度和产业链韧性水平,并实证检验了国内大循环对产业链韧性的影响及作用机制。研究发现,国内大循环增强了产业链韧性,强化产业关联是国内大循环提升产业链韧性的重要渠道。异质性分析结果表明,国内大循环对产业链韧性的提升作用在第三产业、非制造业以及2008年国际金融危机后更大。因此,应加快推进国内大循环建设,并积极提升产业之间的关联性,为增强产业链韧性提供有效路径,加快构建双循环新发展格局。

英文摘要:

      Enhancing industrial chain resilience under the new development pattern necessitates a correct understanding of the important role played by domestic circulation. Utilizing the Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables developed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB-MRIO), this study measures the level of domestic circulation and industrial chain resilience at the industry level in China from 2007 to 2021, and empirically examines the impact of domestic circulation on industrial chain resilience and its mechanisms. The findings indicate that domestic circulation significantly bolsters industrial chain resilience, with the strengthening of industrial linkages serving as a crucial channel. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of domestic circulation on industrial chain resilience is more pronounced in the tertiary sector and the manufacturing sector, and has become increasingly evident in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Therefore, it is imperative to expedite the development of a robust domestic circulation system and actively foster inter-industry linkages to establish effective pathways for enhancing industrial chain resilience, thereby accelerating efforts to foster a new development pattern of dual circulation. 