人口老龄化、数字经济发展与“一带一路”沿线国家出口国内增加值网络地位

Population Aging, Digital Economy Development and the Status of the Domestic Value-Added Export Network of Countries Along the Belt and Road

中文关键词:  人口老龄化  出口国内增加值网络地位  数字经济发展  “一带一路”沿线国家  空间溢出效应

英文关键词:population aging  status of the domestic value-added export network  digital economy development  countries along the Belt and Road  spatial spillover effect

中文摘要:

      在提升出口国内增加值网络地位的过程中,“一带一路”沿线国家普遍面临着人口老龄化的问题。基于2010—2019年39个“一带一路”沿线国家的出口国内增加值数据,构建了“一带一路”沿线国家出口国内增加值网络,并使用空间计量模型检验了人口老龄化对“一带一路”沿线国家出口国内增加值网络地位的影响及其机制,以及数字经济发展的调节作用。研究发现:人口老龄化能够显著提升“一带一路”沿线国家出口国内增加值网络地位,且主要通过倒逼产业结构优化和出口比较优势提升促进了“一带一路”沿线国家出口国内增加值网络地位的提高；数字经济发展在其中发挥了正向调节作用,并具有显著的正向空间溢出效应。异质性分析发现, 人口老龄化对“一带一路”沿线国家出口国内增加值网络地位的提升作用仅显著存在于中度以下老龄化国家和非中心网络地位国家中。中国应积极应对人口老龄化,持续推动产业高级化发展,加强培育技术密集型中间品的出口优势,打造良好的数字经济发展与合作环境,更大限度地发挥数字经济发展的正向空间溢出效应,以提升在“一带一路”沿线国家出口国内增加值网络中的地位。

英文摘要:

      Population aging poses a challenge for countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) as they strive to enhance the status of the domestic value-added export network (hereinafter referred to as the network status). Drawing on data of domestic value-added in exports from 2010 to 2019 for 39 countries along the B&R, this study constructs the domestic value-added export network of countries along the B&R and employs a spatial econometric model to investigate the influence of population aging on the network status, its underlying mechanisms, and the regulatory role of the digital economy development. The findings reveal that population aging can significantly enhance the network status of countries along the B&R, and this effect is mainly achieved by driving industrial structure optimization and enhancing export comparative advantages; the digital economy development plays a positive moderating role in the enhancement of the network status of countries along the B&R and demonstrates significant positive spatial spillover effects. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the influence of population aging on the enhancement of the network status of countries along the B&R is only significant in countries with moderate or lower levels of population aging and those with non-central network status. China should proactively tackle the challenge of population aging, continuously drive the upgrading of industrial structure, and enhance the export advantage of technology-intensive intermediate goods. It can also foster a conducive environment for the development and collaboration of the digital economy, maximize the positive spatial spillover effects of the digital economy development, and elevate its network status. 