房地产金融风险演化特征及其影响因素——基于动态空间杜宾模型

Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Real Estate Financial Risks—Based on the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

中文关键词:  房地产金融  金融风险  风险演化  空间集聚  空间溢出效应  动态空间杜宾模型

英文关键词:real estate finance  financial risk  risk evolution  spatial agglomeration  spatial spillover effect  dynamic spatial Durbin model

中文摘要:

      房地产金融风险是系统性金融风险的重要组成部分,防范房地产金融风险是落实中国金融安全战略的关键。基于2011—2020年中国31个省份面板数据,描述了房地产金融风险的时空演化特征,并通过构建动态空间杜宾模型探究房地产金融风险的溢出机制及其影响因素。研究发现:(1)中国房地产金融风险呈现波动上升的时序演化特征,且省际差异逐渐缩小；全局存在明显的空间依赖性,局部空间格局以高—高集聚和低—低集聚为主；(2)房地产金融风险在时间、空间和时空维度上分别表现出雪球效应、溢出效应和警示效应；(3)地方政府债务风险对房地产金融风险存在正向直接影响和负向空间溢出效应,而信贷扩张对其存在正向直接影响和正向空间溢出效应。因此,应统筹省际政策联动,加强地方政府债务管理,监控房地产信贷规模,以防范房地产金融风险。

英文摘要:

      Real estate financial risk is a key part of systemic financial risk. Preventing real estate financial risk is an important measure to implement China's financial security strategy. This paper uses 31 provincial panel data in China from 2011 to 2020 to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of real estate financial risks and explores the spillover mechanism of real estate financial risks and its influencing factors by constructing a dynamic spatial Durbin model. The results are as follows. (1) China's real estate financial risk rises in fluctuations, with narrowing inter-provincial differences. There is obvious spatial dependence in the global, but the local spatial pattern is dominated by high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration. (2) The real estate financial risk shows snowball effect, spillover effect, and warning effect in time, space, and space-time dimensions, respectively. (3) Local governments' debt risk has a positive direct impact and a negative spatial spillover effect on real estate financial risk. However, credit expansion has a positive direct impact and a positive spatial spillover effect on real estate financial risk. Therefore, it is necessary to coordinate inter-provincial policy linkage, strengthen local governments' debt management, and monitor real estate credit scale, so as to prevent real estate financial risk. 