中央银行信息披露影响商业银行信贷供给吗？

Does the Information Disclosure of Central Bank Affect the Credit Supply of Commercial Banks？

中文关键词:  中央银行信息披露  商业银行  信贷供给  预期管理  信号传递

英文关键词:information disclosure of central bank  commercial banks  credit supply  expectation management  signal transmission

中文摘要:

      在建设现代中央银行制度背景下,提高货币政策透明度,有效管理和引导预期尤为关键,这使得探索中央银行信息披露的经济后果同样成为辨析货币政策调控机制的重要研究方向。基于2008—2020年中国48家商业银行季度数据,运用文本分析法构建了中央银行信息披露指数,并实证分析了中央银行信息披露对商业银行信贷供给的影响。研究发现:中央银行信息披露越充分,商业银行信贷供给越大；特别地,正向信号越明显,中央银行信息披露对商业银行信贷供给的正向影响也越大；机制检验结果显示,中央银行信息披露通过影响商业银行的避险动机,调节商业银行的信贷供给。异质性分析表明,在资本充足率较低、规模较小、流动性较弱的商业银行中,中央银行信息披露对商业银行信贷供给的影响更大。因此,中央银行在不断提升信息披露质量的同时,也要打好信息披露与货币政策的“组合拳”,以达到最优的政策调控效果。

英文摘要:

      Against the background of building modern central bank system, it is crucial to improve the transparency of monetary policy, effectively manage and guide expectations. This makes the economic consequences of central bank information disclosure an important research direction for discerning the regulatory mechanism of monetary policy. Based on the quarterly data samples of China's 48 commercial banks from 2008 to 2020, this paper constructs the information disclosure of central bank index by means of text analysis, and empirically analyzes the influence of the information disclosure of central bank on the credit supply of commercial banks. Research results show that the information disclosure of the central bank is positively correlated with the credit supply of commercial banks. Particularly, the more pronounced positive signal indicates that the information disclosure of central bank has a greater positive impact on the credit supply of commercial banks. Mechanism test shows that the information disclosure of the central bank moderates the credit supply of commercial banks by influencing the risk aversion motivation of commercial banks. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the information disclosure of central bank has a larger effect on the credit supply among commercial banks with lower capital adequacy, smaller size and less liquidity. Therefore, the central bank should combine information disclosure and monetary policies well while continuously improving the quality of information disclosure, so as to achieve the optimal policy control effect. 