以邻为壑还是富足邻里:中国货币政策对RCEP成员的溢出效应研究

Beggar-Thy-Neighbor or Enrich-Thy-Neighbor:The Spillover Effect of China's Monetary Policy on RCEP Members

中文关键词:  货币政策  溢出效应  RCEP  区域经济一体化  贸易依存度  贸易网络

英文关键词:monetary policy  spillover effect  RCEP  regional economic integration  trade dependency  trade network

中文摘要:

      中国是RCEP的核心成员,其货币政策会对其他成员产生外溢性。以MFD框架为指引,基于RCEP成员1998—2020年季度数据,考察了中国货币政策调整对RCEP成员宏观经济和金融市场的影响。研究发现,中国货币政策扩张对RCEP成员的产出有显著的拉动作用,而且贸易联系越紧密拉动作用越大；对RCEP成员的物价水平、利率和汇率具有显著的正向溢出效应。从长期均衡关系来看,中国货币政策对不同贸易依存度成员的影响存在显著差异；从短期溢出效应来看,中国货币政策调整对高贸易依存度成员的宏观经济和低贸易依存度成员的金融市场影响更大。由此,中国在RCEP应更好地发挥系统重要性国家的作用,通过促进区域更高水平的合作来实现RCEP成员高质量共同发展。

英文摘要:

      As China is a major player in RCEP (namely, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), its monetary policy will have a spillover effect on other members. Based on the quarterly data from 1998 to 2020 under the framework of MFD, this paper studies the impacts of China's monetary policy adjustment on the macro-economy and financial market of RCEP members. Research finds that the expansion of China's money supply has a significant pulling effect on RCEP members' output, and the closer trade ties indicate the greater pulling effect. Moreover, it has a significantly positive spillover effect on price level, interest rate and exchange rate of the members. In the long run, the impacts of China's monetary policy on members with different degrees of trade dependency are significantly different. In the short run, China's monetary policy adjustment has stronger impacts on the macro-economy of members with high trade dependency, as well as the financial market of countries with low trade dependency. Therefore, in the future, China should play a systemically important role in RCEP, promote high-level regional cooperation, and therefore achieve common high-quality development.