区域贸易协定条款深度对进口二元边际的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Regional Trade Agreement Depth on Import Intensive Margin and Import Extensive Margin

中文关键词:  区域贸易协定(RTA)  RTA条款深度  进口集约边际  进口扩展边际  RTA灵活度

英文关键词:regional trade agreement (RTA)  RTA depth  import intensive margin  import extensive margin  RTA flexibility

中文摘要:

      随着全球多边贸易自由化受阻,区域贸易协定(RTA)逐渐成为一国开展经济战略合作与竞争的重要手段,中国的外贸政策也正由原来的注重出口逐步调整为进出口并重。以2003—2019年中国已签署的RTA为研究对象,通过构建多种衡量RTA条款深度的指标,深入分析了条款深度变化对中国进口二元边际的影响。研究发现:总深度指数、核心深度指数、“WTO+”深度指数及“WTO-X”深度指数的提升对中国进口扩展边际的影响不显著,但均能显著促进中国进口集约边际的增长；RTA灵活度的增加会削弱RTA条款深度对中国进口集约边际的促进作用；降低双边贸易成本及缩减双边制度距离是RTA条款深度促进中国进口集约边际增长的重要渠道。异质性分析显示:RTA条款深度的提升显著促进了来自发展中经济体和发达经济体进口集约边际的增长,但显著抑制了来自发展中经济体进口扩展边际的增长；相对于农产品的进口二元边际,RTA条款深度的提升仅显著促进了工业品进口集约边际的增长。为更好地发挥RTA促进进口的积极效应,中国应加快签署深度RTA,同时积极推进与发达经济体之间RTA的谈判与合作,有选择性地设置RTA条款的灵活度。

英文摘要:

      With global multilateral trade liberalization running into obstacles, regional trade agreement (RTA) has evolved into an important way for a country to cooperate and compete with its counterparts. China's foreign trade policy has accordingly focused on both import and export instead of export alone. Targeting the RTAs China signed from 2003 to 2019, this paper sets multiple indices for measuring RTA, and studies the impact of the change in RTA depth on China's import intensive margin and import extensive margin. Research findings are as follows. The increase of overall depth index, core depth index, WTO+ depth index and WTO-X depth index has no significant impact on China's import extensive margins but has significant impacts on China's import intensive margins. The increase in RTA flexibility will make a dent in the promotion effect of RTA depth on China's import intensive margins. If RTA depth is to promote the growth of China's import intensive margins, it is imperative to lower bilateral trade costs and narrow bilateral institutional distance. According to heterogeneity analysis, the increase in RTA depth significantly spurs the growth of import intensive margins from developing economies and developed economies, but it significantly suppresses the growth of import extensive margins from developing economies. The increase in RTA depth significantly stimulates the growth of import intensive margins of industrial products rather than agricultural products. To make RTAs better facilitate import, China should sign deep RTAs. Meanwhile, China should take the initiative to negotiate and cooperate with developed economies and selectively set RTA flexibility. 