生育意愿对家庭住房负债的影响

Impact of Fertility Intention on Family Housing Debt

中文关键词:  家庭生育意愿  竞争性储蓄  消费性住房需求  住房资产配置  住房负债  传宗接代

英文关键词:family fertility intention  competitive savings  demand for consumer housing  housing asset allocation  housing debt  having a son to carry on the family name

中文摘要:

      近年来,我国居民住房贷款规模快速扩张。家庭负债的不断上升不仅会降低居民(消费)福利水平,还可能引发系统性金融风险。基于CFPS2018年调查问卷,实证检验了家庭生育意愿对家庭住房负债的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,生育意愿显著影响了家庭住房负债水平。意愿生育男孩数量越多,家庭住房负债水平越高,而意愿生育女孩数量与家庭住房负债不相关。这种差异主要是由“传宗接代”等传统文化观念所导致,意愿生育男孩数量越多的家庭,会配置价值越高的住房资产,进而导致家庭住房负债水平上升。生育意愿主要提升了家庭消费性住房资产配置,此时民间借贷成为主要借款渠道。意愿生育男孩数量对家庭住房负债的正向影响在不同收入和资产水平的家庭中并无显著差异,但在小孩抚养比较高和户主健康状况较好的家庭中更加显著。上述结论表明,政府部门应进一步加强男女平等宣传,提高女性家庭地位和社会地位,同时从法律层面对女性进行保护,在就业、收入等方面消除性别歧视,提高女性社会经济地位,抑制家庭住房负债非理性上升。

英文摘要:

      Recent years has witnessed China's residential housing loans scaling up. Apart from reducing residents' well-being, the intensified family housing debt will trigger systemic financial risks. Based on the 2018 CFPS survey, this paper empirically tests the impacts of family fertility intention on family housing debt and its action mechanism. It is found that fertility intention has a significant impact on family housing debt. Family housing debt increases in pace with the intentions for giving birth to more sons. In the case of giving birth to daughters, there is no correlation between the two. It is mainly attributed to the traditional family aspiration for having a son to carry on the family name. Those families that prefer to give birth to sons will tend to equip themselves with more family properties, thus leading to increase in the family housing debt. Family fertility intention mainly increases families' demand for consumer housing assets. In this context, private loaning becomes the chief source contributing to the increase in family housing debt. Regarding the positive impact of the intention of giving birth to sons on family housing debt, there is no significant difference between families with different incomes and assets. However, such impact is pronounced for families with high child-raising expenses and healthy breadwinners. Judging from the above, the government is advised to promote the idea of gender equality in order to improve women's status in family and society. Meanwhile, women should be given legal protection through the elimination of gender discrimination in employment and income, which can help to raise women's economic status and inhibit the soaring of family housing debt.