贸易开放有助于中国产业结构转型升级的空间收敛吗？——兼论产业结构转型升级的β收敛特征

Does Trade Openness Facilitate the Spacial Convergence of China's Industrial Transformation and Upgrading? —On the β Convergence Feature of Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading

中文关键词:  贸易开放  产业结构  产业结构转型升级  空间收敛  溢出效应

英文关键词:trade openness  industrial structure  industrial structure transformation and upgrading  spatial convergence  spatial spillover effect

中文摘要:

      中国经济高质量发展离不开地区产业结构转型升级和协调发展的强力支撑,而贸易开放则是助力产业结构转型升级的关键动力。根据产业结构变迁所表现出的矢量特征,从数量、质量和合理化三个维度刻画了中国各地区的产业结构转型升级状况,并基于空间β收敛模型,利用1999—2018年中国31个省份(港澳台除外)的面板数据实证检验了中国产业结构转型升级的空间收敛特征及贸易开放的影响效应。研究发现:中国产业结构在数量、质量和合理化三个维度下的转型升级均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛；贸易开放促进了产业结构在质量维度下转型升级的收敛,但加剧了数量和合理化维度下转型升级的发散；贸易开放的空间溢出效应则主要对产业结构在数量维度下转型升级的收敛具有显著影响。异质性分析发现,产业结构转型升级收敛速度在东部地区的质量和合理化维度以及中西部地区的数量维度下更快,全球金融危机之后各维度下的收敛速度均有明显加快；贸易开放的收敛效应主要在东部地区的质量维度和金融危机之前的质量维度下更为显著,贸易开放的空间溢出效应对产业结构转型升级的收敛则主要在全球金融危机之后的质量维度下更为显著。因而,应加快全局性战略举措的制定,增强地区间的空间联动性,充分发挥贸易开放的扩散效应,以促进产业结构转型升级和协调发展。

英文摘要:

      High-quality economic development in China would be a nonstarter without the transformation and upgrading of regional industrial structure and coordinated development. Meanwhile, trade openness is a key driver to facilitate the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure. Focused on the vector characteristics in the industrial structure, this paper describes the industrial structure transformation and upgrading situation of each region from the dimensions of quantity, quality and rationalization. Based on the constructed spatial β convergence model, it empirically tests the spatial convergence feature of China's industrial structure transformation and upgrading and the influence effect of trade opening by using the panel data of 31 provinces in China's mainland from 1999 to 2018. The results show that there are absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure in the three dimensions of quantity, quality and rationalization. Trade openness promotes the convergence of transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in the quality dimension, but intensifies the divergence of transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in the quantity and rationalization dimensions. The spatial spillover effect of trade openness has significant impact on the convergence of transformation and upgrading of industrial structure mainly in the quantity dimension. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the convergence speed of industrial structure transformation and upgrading is faster in the quality and rationalization dimensions of the eastern region and in the quantitative dimensions of the central and western region, and the convergence speed of each dimension is obviously faster after the global financial crisis than before. The convergence effect of trade openness is more significant in the quality dimension of the eastern region as well as in the quality dimension before the global financial crisis, while the convergence of the spatial spillover effect of trade openness on the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is more significant in the quality dimension after the global financial crisis. Therefore, we should spare no effort to formulate overall strategic measures, strengthen inter-regional spatial linkages and give full play to the diffusion effect of trade opening in a bid to promote industrial structure transformation and upgrading and coordinated development.