宏观经济波动、制度性激励与产能过剩

Macroeconomic Fluctuation, Institutional Factors and Over Capacity

中文关键词:  宏观经济波动  制度性因素  政策激励  产能过剩  PVAR模型

英文关键词:macroeconomic fluctuation  institutional factor  policy encouragement  overcapacity  PVAR model

中文摘要:

      厘清产能过剩与宏观经济周期和制度性激励因素的关系,是治理我国产能过剩问题的关键。基于29家上市钢铁企业2007—2017年的面板数据测算了行业产能利用率,通过构建PVAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数探究了经济增长以及政府补贴、金融支持等制度性因素对产能过剩的冲击,利用方差分解方法测算了各影响因素对产能过剩的“贡献度”,结果显示:产能利用率的变动趋势与GDP周期不完全一致,在经济下行周期产能过剩有所加剧；在经济上行周期,产能过剩受到抑制,但该抑制效果不具有可持续性。冲击效应方面,产能过剩对自身的影响在各期都是最高的,说明产能过剩具有很强的逐期积累效应。除自身冲击以外,政府补贴对产能过程的冲击最明显；金融支持在短期内缓解了产能过剩,但长期内反而加剧了产能过剩。实证结果说明,制度性因素在导致产能过剩症结中的作用很强,解决产能过剩的关键是改变政府治理模式。要通过构建多元化的政绩考核体系,防止制度性因素激励企业过度投资,彻底改变无效产能难以退出的体制基础。同时,要明确政府补贴的范围和用途,评估补贴效应。此外,应注意金融支持政策的进入、退出时机选择,防止企业对金融支持的过度依赖。

英文摘要:

      To clarify the relationship of production overcapacity, macroeconomic cycle and institutional incentive factors is the key to solving the problem of China's production overcapacity. Based on the panel data of 29 publicly traded steel companies during the years from 2007 to 2017 in China, this paper calculates the rate of industrial production capacity utilization. Through the construction of PVAR model, with the use of the impulse response function, it explores the impact of economic growth and institutional factors such as government subsidy and financial support on production overcapacity and uses the variance decomposition method to calculate the "contribution rate" of various influencing factors to production overcapacity. The result shows that the trend of change in production capacity utilization rate is not completely consistent with the cycle of GDP, which is intensified in the downturn economic cycle and restrained in the upward economic cycle but such effect not sustainable. As to the effect of the impact, overcapacity has the highest influence on itself in the various periods, which indicates that overcapacity has a strong cumulative effect. In addition to the impact from overcapacity itself, government subsidy has the most obvious impact on the overcapacity. Financial support mitigates overcapacity in the short run, but exacerbates overcapacity in the long run instead. The empirical results show that institutional factors play a very strong role in leading to overcapacity problem. The key to solving overcapacity is to change the governance model. By building a diversified performance appraisal system, it will prevent institutional incentive factors from encouraging enterprises to make excessive investment so as to change completely the institutional basis for non-effective production capacity difficult to withdraw. In the meantime, government subsidy should be made clear in its scope and purpose, and the subsidy benefits should be evaluated. Moreover, attention should be paid to financial support in its time selection of access and exit to prevent the excessive dependence on financial support. 