金融发展与区域经济增长的收入门槛效应研究

A Study on Income Threshold Effect between Financial Development and Regional Economic Growth

中文关键词:  金融发展  区域经济增长  地区收入水平  市场化水平  资源错配  动态面板门槛模型

英文关键词:financial development  regional economic growth  regional income level  marketization level  misallocation of resources  dynamic panel threshold model

中文摘要:

      金融市场与经济增长的关系是重要的宏观议题。随着国民收入达到中等偏上水平,中国正面临“中等收入陷阱”的挑战,探索金融发展与区域经济增长之间的收入门槛效应对于转型时期精准实施差异化的区域金融政策具有重要意义。基于1987—2018年全国31个省份的面板数据,以人均可支配收入为门槛变量,运用动态面板门槛模型,探讨了金融发展与经济增长之间的“非线性”关系。研究发现,金融发展与经济增长之间存在地区收入水平的双重门槛效应。在地区收入水平跨越第一门槛值前后,金融发展均在不同程度上抑制了地区经济增长；当地区收入水平跨越第二门槛值后,金融发展才开始显著促进地区经济增长。机制方面,市场化建设为“双重门槛”效应提供了解释,随着市场化程度的提升,金融发展对区域经济增长的拉动作用更强；而以人才错配为代表的要素市场资源错配并未显著影响上述效应。研究结果表明,在中低收入地区,政府应给予更多的金融扶持政策,提高金融市场服务实体经济的深度；而在高收入地区,要敢于将金融资源配置的决策权交给市场。上述举措有助于从根本上提高金融市场效率。

英文摘要:

      The relationship between financial market and economic growth is an important macro issue. As the national income reaches a level above average, China is facing the challenge of “middle income trap”. It is of great significance to explore the income threshold effect between financial development and regional economic growth for the precise implementation of differentiated regional financial policies in the transition period. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities) in China during the years from 1987 to 2018, this paper takes the per capita disposable income as the threshold variable and uses the dynamic panel threshold model to explore the “non-linear” relationship between financial development and economic growth. The research result shows that there is a dual threshold effect of regional income level between financial development and economic growth. At about the point when the regional income level crosses the first threshold, financial development restrains regional economic growth to some extent. When the regional income level crosses the second threshold, financial development begins to significantly promote regional economic growth. In terms of mechanism, the degree of regional marketization provides an explanation to the “dual threshold” effect. With the improvement of the degree of marketization, financial development plays a stronger role in driving regional economic growth. The resource misallocation on factor market represented by talent misallocation does not significantly affect the above-mentioned effects. The research conclusion shows that in low and middle income areas, the government should give more financial support policies to make the financial market serve the real economy better. In high-income areas, we should dare to leave the decision-making power of financial resource allocation to the market. The above measures will help improve the efficiency of financial market and fundamentally prevent the generation of systemic financial risks. 