董事海外背景与分析师盈余预测——基于企业绩效与信息质量的中介效应

Directors' Overseas Background and Analyst Earnings Forecast Based on Mediating Effect of Firm Performance and Information Quality

中文关键词:  董事会  海外背景  企业绩效  信息质量  公司治理  分析师盈余预测

英文关键词:board of directors  overseas background  firm performance  information quality  corporate governance  analyst earnings forecast

中文摘要:

      当前海外人才回流趋势明显,很多企业聘用有海外背景的人才担任董事职位,董事的背景特征会影响企业的行为决策及绩效。聚焦资本市场中的分析师群体,基于A股上市公司2007—2018年的数据,研究发现,董事的海外背景会显著提升分析师盈余预测的准确度,企业绩效和信息质量起到了中介作用。进一步研究发现,公司治理水平和分析师盈余预测方向在董事海外背景与分析师盈余预测相关关系之间具有调节作用；董事海外背景会显著增加分析师跟踪数量,但不会影响分析师盈余预测的分歧度。因此,企业应关注有海外背景的人才,向资本市场传递更有价值的信息；分析师等利益相关者应从多方面搜集企业信息,以做出更有效的决策。

英文摘要:

      Currently, there is an obvious trend for return of overseas talents. Many companies recruit talents with overseas background to serve as directors, whose background characteristics will have an impact on the behavioral decisions and performance of companies. Focusing on the analyst group in the capital market, based on the data of A-share listed companies during the years from 2007 to 2018, this paper finds that the overseas background of directors will improve significantly the accuracy of analyst earnings forecast, and firm performance and information quality play the intermediary role. Further study shows that the level of corporate governance and the direction of analyst earnings forecast have the moderating effect on the relationship between directors' overseas background and analyst earnings forecast. The overseas background of directors will increase significantly the number of analyst tracking, but it will not affect the divergence of analyst earnings forecast. Therefore, the companies can pay more attention to talents with overseas background, which can pass more valuable information to the capital market. The stakeholders such as analysts should collect corporate information from various aspects in order to make more effective decisions. 