时变视角下房价对制造业投资影响的再审视

Rethinking on Impact of Real Estate Price upon Investment in Manufacturing Industry from Perspective of Time-varying Analysis

中文关键词:  时变参数  房价  制造业投资  股票市场  货币政策  基础设施投资

英文关键词:time-varying parameter  housing price  manufacturing investment  stock market  monetary policy  infrastructure investment

中文摘要:

      在相对宽松的货币政策环境下,近些年房价飞速上涨。房价的快速上涨导致很多资金投向房地产业,而没有投向制造业,对制造业产生的这一影响是中国经济发展所面临的问题之一。在分析了相关影响路径后,使用带有随机波动项的时变参数向量自回归模型,针对房价波动对制造业投资的影响进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,房价上涨对制造业投资存在显著的负向影响,房价冲击带来的这一负向影响在1年左右达到最大,且随着时间的推移,房价波动越剧烈,这种负向影响越明显；企业在股票市场的融资并没有流入制造业,而是更多地去追逐房地产市场的高收益；扩张性货币政策带来的房价上涨导致货币政策对制造业投资的调节作用失效。基于研究结论,建议控制房价预期,减少经济增长对房地产的依赖,推动经济转型带动实体经济发展。

英文摘要:

      Under a relative loose monetary policy, the housing prices are soaring in the recent years, which leads to many investments in the real estate industry instead of in the manufacturing industry. Such impact on manufacturing industry is one of the problems for China to face up in the economic development. After the analysis of related impact path, based on the TVP-VAR-SV model, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the housing price fluctuation on the investment in manufacturing industry. The results show that the housing price increase has an obviously negative impact on the investment in manufacturing industry, especially after one year or so it amounts to the maximum. As time goes by, the stronger the housing price fluctuation, the more obvious such negative effect. The financing that companies gain from the stock market has not flowed into the manufacturing industry but mostly flows into the real estate market in pursuit of high revenue. The rising housing prices brought by expansionary monetary policy make the monetary policy nullified in its regulatory effect on the investment in manufacturing industry. Based on the research conclusions, it is proposed to control the housing price expectations, promote the industrial transformation and upgrading, and reduce the dependence of economic growth on real estate. 