家庭资产选择、地区经济特征与居民消费水平

Household Asset Selection, Regional Economic Characteristics and Residents' Consumption Level

中文关键词:  家庭资产选择  地区经济特征  居民消费  生命周期  普惠金融  分层线性模型(HLM)

英文关键词:household asset selection  regional economic characteristics  household consumption  life cycle  inclusive finance  Hierarchical Linear Model(HLM)

中文摘要:

      当前,中国宏观经济下行压力巨大,总需求明显不足,国内消费持续不振,居民消费亟待提升。基于生命周期假说,从理论上分析了家庭资产选择与居民消费的动态决策机制。在此基础上,利用2016年CFPS的居民家庭数据并匹配同年度地区层面的宏观数据,构建分层线性模型,实证检验了家庭资产选择对居民消费的影响,并考察了地区经济特征的交互效应。研究发现:(1)住房资产与金融资产都对居民消费具有显著的促进作用,现阶段住房资产的促进作用大于金融资产,可支配收入仍是决定居民消费的关键因素。(2)由地区层面因素造成的居民消费差异占整体消费差异的17.4%,地区经济发展水平、市场化程度均对家庭资产的消费拉动效应产生了正向调节。其中,对金融资产的调节作用更明显,对住房资产的调节不明显。(3)在主要省份中,广东省家庭资产的消费促进效应最大,贵州省、甘肃省最小；与农村家庭相比,中国城镇家庭资产对消费的拉动更明显；财务回答人年龄处于36～50岁之间的家庭,家庭资产的消费拉动效果更大。研究结论表明,缩小地区经济差距、积极推动地区市场化改革、大力发展普惠金融是现阶段提升中国居民消费的关键。

英文摘要:

      At present, China's macro-economic downward pressure is huge, the total demand is obviously insufficient, domestic consumption continues to be sluggish, and household consumption needs to be improved. Based on the life cycle hypothesis, this paper theoretically analyzes the dynamic decision-making mechanism of household asset selection and household consumption. On that basis, using the household data of CFPS in 2016 and matching the macro data at the regional level of the same year, a hierarchical linear model is constructed to empirically test the impact of household asset selection on household consumption, and to investigate the interaction effect of regional economic characteristics. The results show that:(1) both housing assets and financial assets have a significant role in promoting the consumption of residents, but at present, the promotion of housing assets is greater than that of financial assets, and disposable income is still the key factor in determining the consumption of residents. (2) The consumption difference caused by the regional characteristics accounts for 17.4% of the total consumption difference. The level of regional economic development and the degree of marketization will have a positive adjustment on the consumption pulling effect of family assets. Among them, the regulation of financial assets is more obvious, while the regulation of housing assets is not significant. (3) Among the major provinces, the consumption promotion effect of family assets in Guangdong Province is the largest, while that in the provinces of Guizhou and Gansu is the smallest; compared with rural families. The consumption promotion effect of urban family assets is more obvious; for families at the age from 36 to 50, the “asset effect” of family assets is greater. The conclusion shows that narrowing the regional economic disparity, actively promoting the regional market-oriented reform, and vigorously developing the inclusive finance are the key to improving the consumption of Chinese residents at this stage. 