如何应对我国经济面临的新矛盾及新挑战

On How to Deal with the New Contradictions and Challenges Facing China's Economy

中文关键词:  新时代  三期叠加  结构性矛盾  滞涨  双重风险  化解策略

英文关键词:New Era  three periods superposition  structural contradiction  stagflation  double risks  solution strategy

中文摘要:

      我国2010年成为世界第二大经济体,同年宣布退出全面反危机的扩张政策,之后,我国宏观经济进入了由高速增长转向中高速增长的新常态。目前,我国经济面临着一系列新矛盾与新挑战,具体表现为宏观三期叠加矛盾、微观三大结构性矛盾、国内中等收入陷阱挑战、国际修昔底德陷阱挑战。其中,宏观为增长速度的换挡期、结构调整的阵痛期、反危机之后的消化期三期叠加,微观为实体经济内部供给和需求、实体经济和金融货币、房地产部门发展和国民经济其他部门发展之间的三大结构性矛盾。同时,我国经济出现“滞涨”的可能性增大,较长时间内可能会出现通货膨胀和经济“下行”双重风险并存的局面。为应对我国经济面临的新矛盾和新挑战,国家明确“五位一体”的发展目标,树立创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的全新发展理念,积极推动供给侧结构改革,并配合积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策以实现经济的可持续性增长。特别地,国家放弃货币供应量M2增速与名义GDP增速同步,以应对我国经济下行压力。

英文摘要:

      Since China became the second largest economic entity in the world and announced the full withdrawal from the anti crisis expansion policy, the macro-economy has entered into the “New Normal” era, shifting from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. Currently, China's economy is facing a series of new contradictions and challenges, which are embodied in the three overlapping macroscopic contradictions, three structural microscopic contradictions, the challenges of middle income trap domestically and Thucydides' trap internationally. Among them, macroscopic contradictions refer to the three overlapping contradictions:shift period of growth rate, painful period of structural adjustment, and digestion period after the anti-crisis. Microscopic contradictions refer to the three major structural contradictions between the internal supply and demand of real economy, between real economy and financial currency, between the development of real estate sector and the development of other sectors of in national economy. At the same time, the “stagflation” is more likely to occur in China's economy. In a long run, double risks may coexist with both inflation and economic “downturn”. In order to resolve the new contradictions and meet new challenges faced by China's economy, the nation has clearly established the five-sphere integrated development goals (i.e. “economic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress”) to set up the totally new idea of “innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development”. China promotes actively the supply-side structural reform, together with proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy to achieve the sustainable and stable economic growth. In particular, the nation has abandoned the synchronization of M2 growth rate of money supply and nominal GDP growth rate to correct the downward pressure on China's economy. 