对外直接投资与企业异质性升级——基于内生转换回归模型和边际处理效应模型的实证研究

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Heterogeneity Upgrading of Enterprises:Empirical Study Based on Endogenous Switching Regression Model and Marginal Treatment Effect Model

中文关键词:  对外直接投资(OFDI)  企业升级  “一带一路”  内生转换回归模型  边际处理效应模型

英文关键词:outward foreign direct investment (OFDI)  enterprise upgrading  the “Belt and Road” (B&R)  endogenous switching regression (ESR) model  marginal treatment effect (MTE) model

中文摘要:

      在“走出去”战略和“一带一路”倡议大背景下,实现经济高质量发展的关键在于微观层面的企业升级,但是对于OFDI如何影响企业升级目前还缺乏深入研究。在理论分析的基础上,采用2010—2015年中国A股上市公司数据,综合运用内生转换回归模型和边际处理效应模型考察了OFDI对企业升级的异质性影响。研究发现:(1)OFDI能促进以生产率提升为标示的企业升级,这种提升作用主要通过研发投入效应、逆向技术溢出效应、规模经济效应等中介机制实现。(2)反事实估计结果表明,OFDI企业如果选择不对外直接投资会抑制其升级,非OFDI企业如果选择对外直接投资则会促进其升级。(3)全样本的边际处理效应分析结果显示,当企业OFDI的潜在成本越低时,其边际处理效应越高,升级效应也越大。(4)从分样本OFDI企业的平均升级效应来看,高新企业大于传统企业,技术密集型企业大于其他要素密集型企业；在潜在成本非常低的情形下,国有企业和对“一带一路”沿线国家投资企业的边际升级效应分别大于民营企业和对非“一带一路”沿线国家投资企业。研究发现对于如何分类引导企业“走出去”、降低企业对“一带一路”沿线国家投资成本以及促进企业升级具有重要启示意义。

英文摘要:

      Under the background of the “Going Global” strategy and the “Belt and Road” (B&R) Initiative, the key to achieving the high quality development of the economy lies in the upgrading of enterprises at the micro level. However, there is no in-depth study on how outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) will affect the upgrading of enterprises. Based on the data of China’s A-share listed companies during the years from 2010 to 2015, this paper uses the parameter estimation methods of endogenous switching regression (ESR) model and marginal treatment effect (MTE) model to analyze the impact of OFDI on enterprise upgrading. The empirical research shows that:(1) OFDI can promote the enterprise upgrading marked by productivity improvement. This promotion is mainly achieved through intermediary mechanism such as R&D investment effect, reverse technology spillover effect, and scale economy effect. (2) The results of counterfactual estimation indicate that if the OFDI companies choose not to invest abroad, they will inhibit their upgrading, while the non-OFDI enterprises will promote their upgrading if they choose OFDI. (3) The results of marginal treatment effect of the total sample show that the lower the potential cost of OFDI in an enterprises, the higher the marginal treatment effect and the greater the upgrading effect. (4) The average upgrading effect of sub-samples shows that it is higher in high-tech enterprises than in traditional enterprises, and it is higher in technology-intensive enterprises than in other factor-intensive enterprises. When the potential cost of OFDI is very low, the marginal upgrading effect is greater in the state-owned enterprises and enterprises invested along the B&R countries than in the private enterprises and enterprises invested along the non-B&R countries respectively. The findings of this paper are of enlightening significance to guide the enterprises “Going Global” by category, reduce the investment cost of enterprises along the B&R countries, and promote the enterprise upgrading. 