中国对外直接投资的贸易效应——基于“一带一路”倡议的研究

Research on Trade Effect of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment Based on the “Belt and Road” Initiative

中文关键词:  对外直接投资  “一带一路”倡议  贸易效应  新兴经济体  引力模型

英文关键词:foreign direct investment  “Belt and Road” Initiative (BRI)  trade effect  newly emerging economies  gravity model

中文摘要:

      “一带一路”倡议作为新时代中国全面对外开放的重要举措,为实现开放型经济转型升级注入了强大动力。基于2003—2016年“一带一路”沿线国家的面板数据,研究了“一带一路”背景下中国对外直接投资的贸易效应。研究结果表明,总体上中国在“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的进口效应和出口效应均显著为正,但对进口的促进效应大于对出口的促进效应；区分投资目标国后发现,中国在新兴经济体投资具有显著的出口促进作用,而在非新兴经济体投资具有显著的进口促进作用。进一步地,将贸易进出口产品区分为初级制成品、资源类制成品和技术制成品,发现中国在非新兴经济体投资的贸易效应主要表现为对资源类制成品和技术制成品进口规模的促进作用；在新兴经济体则更多地表现为技术制成品出口规模的促进作用,而对资源类制成品和技术制成品的进口存在替代效应。因而,应加大在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资力度,实施“因国施策”的贸易策略,实现与不同类型国家的产业优势互补。

英文摘要:

      The “Belt and Road” Initiative (BRI) is an important measure for China's comprehensive opening up in the new era, and it has injected a strong impetus into the transformation and upgrading of an open economy. Based on the panel data of countries along the “Belt and Road” during the years from 2003 to 2016, this paper studies the trade effect of China's outward foreign direct investment in the context of BRI. The research results show that China's import effect and export effect on direct investment in the countries along the “Belt and Road” are significantly positive, but the promotion effect on imports is greater than the promotion effect of exports; specifically, after differentiating the target countries, we find that that China's investment in emerging economies has a significant export-promoting role, while investment in non-emerging economies has a significant import-promoting effect. Further, the import and export products are divided into primary manufactured products, resource-based manufactured products and technology-based manufactured products, the research finds that China's investment in non-emerging economies is mainly manifested in the promotion of import effect in resource-based manufactured goods and technology-based manufactured goods; while investment in newly emerging economies is more manifested in the promotion of export effects in manufactured goods, and there is a substitution effect on the imports of manufactured goods and technology-based finished products. Therefore, we shold increase the investment in the countries along the “Belt and Road” and implement a trade strategy based on “country-based policies” to achieve the complementary advantages with different types of countries. 