因地制宜:产业结构变迁与全要素生产率——基于230个城市的经验证据

Adjustable to Local Conditions:Industrial Structure Change and Total Factor Productivity Based on Empirical Evidence of 230 Cities in China

中文关键词:  全要素生产率  产业结构变迁  产业结构服务化  工业化  服务业结构高级化  区域异质性

英文关键词:Total Factors Productivity (TFP)  industrial structure change  tertiarization of industrial structure  industrialization  optimization of service industry structure  regional heterogeneity

中文摘要:

      我国经济发展的主要矛盾已由追求高速增长转换为追求以深化供给侧结构性改革为主线的高质量增长,产业结构升级成为推进我国供给侧结构性改革的关键。针对这一情境下如何推进产业结构升级以带动我国全要素生产率增长的问题,以2004—2016年中国230个地级市数据为样本,重点从产业结构服务化、工业化和服务业结构高级化三个方面,构建固定效应模型检验了产业结构变迁对全要素生产率的影响。研究结果显示:(1)产业结构服务化并不能够带来全要素生产率的必然增长,只有产业结构服务化与服务业结构高级化同步进行才能带动全要素生产率增长；(2)工业化与服务业结构高级化进程都有利于提高全要素生产率；(3)产业结构变迁对不同地区全要素生产率的影响具有一定的异质性,产业结构服务化能促进东部地区全要素生产率的增长,工业化则更有利于中西部地区全要素生产率的增长。以上实证结论在考虑内生性问题的基础上仍较为稳健。基于此,各地区在推进产业结构服务化的同时,更需要关注服务业的内部结构升级,并结合本地要素禀赋、经济基础与工业化水平等,建立更加完善的产业结构升级指标考核体系,以促进全要素生产率增长。

英文摘要:

      China's economic entity has changed from high-speed growth to high-quality development which is feathered by supply-side reform. Promoting the upgrading of industrial structure is the key to promoting the structural reform of supply side. In this situation, how can we promote the upgrading of industrial structure to drive the growth of China's total factor productivity (TFP)? Based on the data of 230 prefecture-level cities during the years from 2004 to 2016 and the fixed effects model, this paper examines the impact of industrial structure change on TFP from three aspects:tertiarization, industrialization and the optimization of service industry. The results show that:(1) The tertiarization of industrial structure cannot improve TFP. Only when the tertiarization of industrial structure and the optimization of service industry structure occurred at the same time can TFP be improved. (2) The process of local industrialization and the optimization of service industry will be conducive to TFP growth. (3) The local government should formulate the industrial structure policy according to the actual situation. For the eastern region, the tertiarization of industrial will be beneficial to the growth of TFP. For the central and western regions, the industrialization will be more conducive to the growth of TFP. Based on the above conclusions, this paper believes that each region needs to pay attention to the optimization of service industry while the industrial structure is upgrading. According to factor endowment, economic conditions and industrialization level, the local government should establish a more comprehensive indicator system for the industrial structure upgrading to promote total factor productivity growth. 