管理层预测能力、环境不确定性与盈余管理

Management Forecasting Ability, Environmental Uncertainty and Earnings Management

中文关键词:  管理层预测能力  盈余管理  业绩预告  环境不确定性  盈利预测  信息含量

英文关键词:managements' forecasting ability  earnings management  earnings forecast  environmental uncertainty  earnings forecast  information content

中文摘要:

      管理层业绩预告的准确性会受到盈余管理的影响,但更取决于管理层的预测能力,管理层业绩预告的持续准确性不仅可以在一定程度上剔除盈余管理的噪音,还可以在一定程度上反映管理层的预测能力。以2010—2016年沪深两市A股上市公司为样本,以前3年管理层业绩预告偏差的均值度量管理层预测能力,实证考察了管理层预测能力与盈余管理的相关性,以及环境不确定性的调节作用。研究发现:公司管理层的预测能力越差,管理层进行盈余管理的动机越强,盈余管理程度越大,即真实盈余管理程度越大,应计盈余管理程度也越大；环境不确定性程度越高,管理层预测能力与真实盈余管理程度和应计盈余管理程度之间的相关性越显著。研究结果表明,业绩预告的持续准确性可以对外传递公司的盈余质量信息,有利于缓解政策制定者和监管者一直担忧的业绩预告可靠性问题。

英文摘要:

      The accuracy of earnings forecast is influenced not only by earning management, but also by managements' forecasting ability. What's more, the persistent accuracy of earnings forecast not only reduces the noise of earnings management but also reflects managements' forecasting ability to a certain degree. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between managements' forecasting ability and earnings management and the moderating effect of environmental uncertainty using the data of China's A-stock listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the years from 2010 to 2016. We use the average accuracy of the previous three years' earnings forecast to measure the forecasting ability of management. We find that the lower the managements' forecasting ability, the stronger the motivation of management for earnings management, the higher degree of real earnings management and accrual earnings management. In addition, the degree of environmental uncertainty could enhance the significance of the relationship between managements' forecasting ability and earnings management. This research shows that the persistent accuracy of earnings forecast can transfer the company's earnings quality information, which will help alleviate the reliability of performance forecasts that policymakers and regulators have been worried about.