“一带一路”沿线国家风险评级研究

Study on Risk Rating of “The Belt & Road Initiative” Countries

中文关键词:  “一带一路”倡议  出口信用保险  国家风险评级  模糊综合评价法  信用风险  整合数据库

英文关键词:“The Belt & Road” Initiative  export credit insurance  country risk rating  fuzzy comprehensive evaluation  credibility risk  integrated database

中文摘要:

      参考多家国内外评级机构的评级体系,基于中国的视角上,以区别于国外评级机构将该国政治与经济制度是否与西方国家主流价值观一致作为风险考核的标准,避免受到意识形态的干扰。整合多个国别风险数据库和网页抓取数据库,从政治风险、经济风险、金融风险、商业环境风险和法律风险等多个角度,建立140项评级指标,收集46200条数据,并综合使用模糊综合评价、主成分分析及功效函数法,对目前“一带一路”沿线的66个国家作连续5年的出口信用保险的国家风险评级。研究发现:新加坡是“一带一路”沿线国家中信用评级最高的,拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚、斯洛伐克、土耳其、马来西亚、俄罗斯、泰国等国家的信用评级也极高,阿富汗、老挝、乌克兰、伊朗、阿拉伯叙利亚共和国、伊拉克、缅甸、也门共和国、东帝汶等国家信用评级较差,结论与国内外知名机构评级大体一致。建议在“一带一路”沿线国家信用评级过程中,应考虑政权变更、营商环境和经济发展可持续性等因素。

英文摘要:

      This paper has referred to the rating system of a number of domestic and foreign credit rating agencies. From China's perspective to avoid the ideological interference, it is different from foreign credit rating agencies in which the criteria to evaluate the risk is whether the political and economic regimes are in conformity with the mainstream values in the western countries. It has integrated several country-based risk databases and grabbed the databases on the website and constructs the rating system from various perspectives such as political risk, economic risk, financial risk, business environment risk and legal risk. It establishes 140 rating index, collects 46200 data and comprehensively adopts the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Model of Principal Components Analysis and Efficacy Function to evaluate the country-based risk rating of 66 countries in “The Belt & Road” Initiative for the 5 consecutive years of export credit insurance. The research shows that Singapore wins the highest in the credit rating among the countries, with Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Turkey, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand, etc. also very high in the credit rating, but poor credit rating in Afghanistan, Ukraine, Laos, Iran, Arabia, Republic of Syria, Iraq, Burma, Republic of Yemen, East Timor, etc. Generally speaking, the conclusion is consistent with the rating results released by domestic and foreign well-known rating agencies. It is suggested that the factors such as regime change, business environment and economic development sustainability should be considered in the process of credit rating on the countries along the “Belt and Road” Initiative.