中国—东盟自由贸易区的中国农产品出口贸易效应

Effects of CAFTA on Export Trade of China's Agricultural Products

中文关键词:  中国—东盟自由贸易区  农产品  出口贸易  贸易效应  扩展引力模型  贸易创造效应  贸易转移效应

英文关键词:China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA)  agricultural products  export trade  trade effect  augmented gravity model  trade creation effect  trade diversion effect

中文摘要:

      东盟是中国重要的农产品贸易伙伴,中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的建设会对中国与东盟国家的农产品贸易产生重要影响。基于1992—2015年中国农产品出口贸易数据,在扩展引力模型的基础上,采用Heckman两阶段模型考察了CAFTA建设对中国农产品出口贸易的影响。结果显示:中国农产品出口贸易不存在转移效应和创造效应,CAFTA未能有效促进中国对CAFTA内部国家的农产品出口,甚至存在负向效应。进一步的农产品分类研究发现,CAFTA与中国的肉及肉制品等6类农产品的出口之间没有显著相关性；对中国食品及主要供食用的活动物等13类农产品出口贸易存在创造效应,不存在转移效应；对中国其余3类农产品向成员国的出口贸易呈现负效应；对外部出口有较好的促进作用；CAFTA的出口贸易效应具有阶段性特征。

英文摘要:

      ASEAN is China's important agricultural trade partner. The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) will have an important impact on agricultural trade between China and ASEAN. Based on China's agricultural export data during the years from 1992 to 2015, this paper uses Heckman's two-stage estimation to investigate the influence of CAFTA construction on China's agricultural export trade by the augmented gravity model. The results show that there is no diversion effect or creation effect in China's agricultural export trade. CAFTA has failed to promote effectively the export of China's agricultural products within CAFTA, and even has negative effects. The further study of agricultural products classification shows the following. CAFTA has no significant correlation with the export of China's six kinds of agricultural products, including meat and meat products. CAFTA has the trade creation effect but no trade diversion effect on China's export of 13 kinds of agricultural products including food and live animals mainly for human consumption. CAFTA has a negative effect on the export of other three kinds of agricultural products to member states, but it has a good promotion effect on external export. The export trade effect of CAFTA has periodic characteristics.