城市化中农村居民消费演变的“反恩格尔”事实——来自北京市数据的测算

The “Anti-Engel” Fact in Evolution of Rural Residents' Consumption during Urbanization ——A Calculation from the Data in Beijing

中文关键词:  城市化  北京市  农村居民  消费结构  恩格尔系数  Hodrick-Prescott(HP)滤波

英文关键词:urbanization  Beijing city  rural residents  consumption structure  Engel coefficient  Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering

中文摘要:

      中国改革开放已历40年,在高城镇化率地区,农村居民的消费结构,尤其是食物支出结构和恩格尔系数等指标的变动是否符合经验规律,是判断地区综合发展水平的重要内容。基于北京市农村居民2004—2015年各项消费支出数据,运用灰色关联分析和预测方法以及HP滤波方法,测算了消费演变的统计特征。结果显示,2004—2010年,北京市农村居民处于联合国粮农组织标准下的富裕型生活水平,消费受食品支出影响最大；2011—2015年,恩格尔系数有小幅上升。而经HP滤波分解得到的恩格尔系数的时间趋势项呈缓慢上升趋势。基于GM(1,1)模型对2016—2020年消费趋势的测算结果显示,恩格尔系数依然有上升趋势,北京市农村居民消费变动不符合恩格尔经验规律。分析后认为,“反恩格尔规律”的统计事实可能说明消费正在发生根本性的转型升级,而不是农村居民生活水平下降的反映。建议应通过完善社会保障体系等措施,促进农村居民消费向质量改善型的结构转型升级。

英文摘要:

      China's reform and opening up has lasted for 40 years. In the area of high urbanization rate, whether the changes in the consumption structure of rural residents, especially the changes in food expenditure structure, Engel coefficient and other indicators, accord with the empirical rule, is an important content to evaluate the regional comprehensive development level. Based on the consumption expenditure data of rural residents in Beijing during the years from 2004 to 2015, this paper studies the statistical characteristics of consumption evolution with the use of grey correlation analysis, prediction method and Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering method. The results show that in the years from 2004 to 2010, the rural residents in Beijing were rich according to the standard of FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization), and the consumption was most affected by food expenditure. In the years from 2011 to 2015, the Engel coefficient increased slightly, but the time trend of the Engel coefficient obtained by the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering decomposition was rising slowly. Based on the GM (1,1) model, the calculation of the consumption trend in the years from 2016 to 2020 years indicates that the Engel coefficient will still tend to rise. The consumption change of rural residents in Beijing is not in line with Engel's empirical rule. The analysis shows that the statistical results of “Anti-Engel rule” may indicate that consumption is undergoing a fundamental transformation and upgrading rather than reflecting a decline in the living standard of rural residents. It is suggested that the government should promote the transformation and upgrading of rural residents' consumption with the better quality structure by improving social security system and other measures.