耐储蔬菜与反季蔬菜价格波动的联动效应分析——以北京市为例

Linkage Effect of Price Fluctuation in Shelf-stable Vegetables and Anti-season Vegetables: Taking Beijing City as Example

中文关键词:  耐储蔬菜  反季蔬菜  联动效应  E-G协整模型  Granger因果检验  BEKK-GARCH模型

英文关键词:shelf-stable vegetable  anti-season vegetable  linkage effect  E-G co-integration model  Granger causality test  BEKK-GARCH model

中文摘要:

      价格波动是蔬菜市场的常态,但过度波动会直接影响到蔬菜的消费和生产。冬春季节的耐储蔬菜价格与反季蔬菜价格波动频繁,研究二者的价格联动效应,分析其波动规律,对于保障蔬菜市场供需平衡具有一定的实践意义。运用E-G协整模型、Granger因果检验、BEKK-GARCH模型,研究了北京市耐储蔬菜价格与反季蔬菜价格波动的联动效应,结果表明:耐储蔬菜价格与反季蔬菜价格波动态势基本一致,但反季蔬菜价格异常波动特征明显；从长期来看,耐储蔬菜价格指数与反季蔬菜价格指数具有显著的双向因果关系与正向联动效应,且耐储蔬菜价格波动对反季蔬菜价格波动的推动作用占据主导地位；从短期来看,耐储蔬菜价格与反季蔬菜价格波动存在ARCH效应与GARCH效应,且存在双向波动传递效应。基于上述研究结论, 提出如下建议:第一,构建完善的价格指数信息平台,建立基于耐储蔬菜与反季蔬菜价格的监测预警机制,实时监控蔬菜价格的异常波动,合理引导其消费和生产；第二,大力扶持耐储蔬菜市场建设,合理规划外埠蔬菜引进计划,有效调控耐储蔬菜与反季蔬菜供应总量与结构；第三,设立财政补贴,建立耐储蔬菜与重点反季蔬菜专项价格调节基金,合理调控蔬菜价格的过度波动。

英文摘要:

      Price fluctuation is a normal phenomenon in vegetable market, but excessive price fluctuation can impact directly the consumption and production of vegetables. In spring and winter the shelf-stable vegetables and anti-season vegetables have frequent price fluctuations. It is of practical significance to study the linkage effect of vegetable prices and analyze the fluctuation laws in vegetable prices for the balance between supply and demand on vegetable market. This paper utilizes E-G cointegration model, Granger causality test and BEKK-GARCH model to study the linkage effect between shelf-stable vegetables and anti-season vegetables in Beijing City. The research results indicate that the price fluctuation trend of shelf-stable vegetables is fundamentally the same as that of anti-season vegetables, but anti-season vegetables have obvious feature of abnormal price fluctuation. In a long term, the price index of both shelf-stable vegetables and anti-season vegetables have noteworthy bi-directional causality and positive linkage effect, and the fluctuation of shelf-stable vegetables price plays a leading role in promoting the price fluctuation of anti-season vegetables. In a short term, there is AECH effect and GARCH effect in price fluctuation of shelf-stable vegetables and anti-season vegetables, and there exists a two-way fluctuation pass-through effect. Based on the above research conclusions, suggestions are put forward as below. Firstly, we should set up a perfect price index information platform and establish a monitoring and warning mechanism based on the prices of shelf-stable vegetables and anti-season vegetables, which can monitor the abnormal price fluctuation of some vegetables in real time to guide appropriately their consumption and production. Secondly, we should make great efforts to support the construction of the market for shelf-stable vegetables and rationally make a plan for the import of vegetables from other places so that the total supply and structure of shelf-stable vegetables and anti-season vegetables can be effectively regulated. Thirdly, we should set up financial subsidies to establish a special price regulating fund for shelf-stable vegetables and key anti-season vegetables so as to regulate the excessive fluctuation of vegetable prices. 