中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的产业贸易关系研究

Research on Industry Trade Relationship between China and Countries along the Belt and Road

中文关键词:  一带一路  国际产能合作  产业贸易关系  相对贸易优势指数  双边贸易综合互补性系数

英文关键词:the Belt and Road  international cooperation of production capacity  industrial trade relationship  relative trade advantage index  bilateral trade complementary coefficient

中文摘要:

      基于2013—2015年联合国商品贸易统计数据库的相关数据,按照《国际贸易标准分类(第二次修订版)》的分类标准,将国际货物贸易商品分为10个类别,并采用地理区域划分法将“一带一路”沿线65个国家划分为7个区域,通过测度相对贸易优势指数与双边贸易综合互补性系数,分别从时点、时段两个角度以及区域、国别两个视角考察了我国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易关系。主要研究结论如下:相对于初级产品部门而言,我国工业制成品部门的对外贸易竞争水平较高；在对外贸易相对优势方面,仅非食用原料(燃料除外)、动植物油脂及蜡2个类别逐年上升,其余8个类别均处于下降或波动态势。我国与“一带一路”沿线国家开展产能合作的可拓展空间较大,双方贸易互补性产业在数量上具有绝对优势。这在一定程度上可以降低我国对外贸易的风险,并从整体上提高我国对外贸易水平。

英文摘要:

      Based on the data during the years from 2013 to 2015 in UNCOMTRADE database, this paper divides trade goods into 10 sectors (0-9) according to the standard classification of SITC/Rev2, and divides the 65 countries along the Belt and Road (referred to as B&R countries) into 7 regions by geographic division method. With the relative trade advantage index and the bilateral trade complementary coefficient, it also studies the trade relationship between China and B&R countries from two aspects of time point or time period as well as from two perspectives by region or by country. The main results are as follows:compared with the primary sector, the manufacturing sector in China is at a higher level in foreign trade competition; the comparative advantage in foreign trade increases year by year only in 2 sectors such as Non-edible Raw Materials (fuels excluded) and Animal and Vegetable Oil, Fats and Wax, but it declines or fluctuates in other 8 sectors in China. The capacity to be explored is large to carry out the industrial cooperation between China and B&R countries, the bilateral trade in complementary industries has absolute advantage in quantity, which can further reduce the risk in China's foreign trade and improve the level of China's foreign trade on the whole. 