我国城乡消费价格指数的关联性分析

Correlation Analysis on China's Urban and Rural CPI Data

中文关键词:  城市消费价格指数  农村消费价格指数  协整检验  向量误差修正模型  脉冲响应函数  方差分解

英文关键词:urban Consumer Price Index (CPI)  rural Consumer Price Index (CPI)  co-integration test  Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)  impulse response function  variance decomposition 

中文摘要:

      消费价格指数衡量了居民所购买的生活消费品和服务的价格水平的变动情况,考察城乡消费价格指数的相互影响是理解城乡差距问题的一个重要切入点。选取2001年1月—2016年12月共计192个月度的城市消费价格指数和农村的消费价格指数,利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、向量误差修正模型和方差分解等方法,对城乡消费价格指数的关联性进行了实证分析,结果表明:我国城乡消费价格指数之间存在长期均衡关系；城市消费价格指数显著引导农村消费价格指数；城市消费价格指数对农村消费价格指数的短期冲击较农村对城市的冲击更为剧烈和持久；此外,城市消费价格指数对农村消费价格指数波动的方差贡献率也是更大的。上述结论表明,应加强对城乡消费价格指数的监控,平衡城乡间的经济发展,避免其中一方,尤其是城市一方不合理的消费行为对另一方产生的不利影响。 

英文摘要:

      The consumer price index (CPI) can measure the changes in price level for consumer goods and services purchased by residents. It is an important point to examine the mutual impact of urban CPI and rural CPI for understanding the problem of the gap between urban and rural areas. This paper selects a total of 192 monthly urban and rural CPI data from January 2001 to December 2016 and makes an empirical analysis of the correlation between urban and rural CPI data with the methods of co-integration test, Granger causality test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and variance decomposition. The results indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urban and rural CPI data in China, that urban CPI is of significant guidance to the rural CPI and that urban CPI has a more severe and lasting short-term impact on rural CPI. Moreover, urban CPI has greater variance contribution to rural CPI. The above-stated conclusions show that we should monitor the urban and rural CPI and balance the economic development in urban and rural areas to avoid the adverse impact of either side upon other side, especially the impact of urban side with unreasonable consumption behaviors. 