中国房地产投资波动对经济周期的影响研究

Research on Impact of Real Estate Investment Fluctuation on Business Cycle in China

中文关键词:  房地产投资  投资波动  经济周期  短周期  中周期  长周期  UC模型

英文关键词:real estate investment  investment fluctuation  business cycle  short-term cycle  mid-term cycle  long-term cycle  UC Model

中文摘要:

      房地产市场的剧烈波动,会对宏观经济造成巨大冲击,研究房地产周期与经济周期的关系,对于调控房地产市场的剧烈波动、制定更优的宏观经济政策有着重要意义。文章构建了关于房地产投资和经济周期相关时间序列的单变量和多变量UC计量模型,运用1992—2014年的数据,对中国房地产投资波动对经济周期的影响进行了分析。研究结果表明,房地产投资短周期和中周期与国内生产总值周期较为接近,其中短周期拐点先于经济周期,可以此预测经济周期波动；中周期两者非常接近；长周期上,房地产增长趋势与国内生产总值增长一致；短期内房地产市场的波动能通过固定资产投资引发整个经济的波动。最后针对研究结论,提出了适当发挥房地产业的积极作用,促进宏观经济的顺利转型等政策建议。 

英文摘要:

      The fluctuation in real estate market will have a huge impact on macro-economy. It is significant to study the relationship between real estate cycle and business cycle for better control of fluctuation in real estate and making macroeconomic policy. This paper builds a single and multi-variable UC Model of real estate investment and business cycle, analyzing how fluctuation in real estate can affect business cycle based on the data during the years from 1992 to 2014. It indicates that the short-term and mid-term cycle investment in real estate is similar to the GDP cycle. For short-term investment in real estate, the inflection point turns earlier than business cycle, so it can be used to predict the economic fluctuation. For mid-term investment in real estate, they are both similar. For long-term investment, the growth in real estate is identical with the GDP growth. In the short run, the fluctuation in real estate market can lead to economic fluctuation through the fixed asset investment. Finally, according to the research conclusion, this paper makes some recommendations such as making the use of the positive role of real estate industry to promote the smooth macroeconomic transformation. 