现金股利政策与股价崩盘风险——基于股利“替代”模型和“结果”模型之辨析

Cash Dividend Policy and Stock Price Crash Risk: An Analysis Based on Dividend “Alternative” Model and “Result” Model

中文关键词:  现金股利政策  股价崩盘风险  信息披露质量  自由现金流  替代模型  结果模型

英文关键词:cash dividend policy  stock price crash risk  quality of information disclosure  free cash flow  alternative model  results model

中文摘要:

      股价的崩盘严重干扰着我国资本市场的健康有序发展,也损害着投资者利益和公司价值。因此,探寻防范股价崩盘风险的机制具有重要的现实意义。以2007—2013年A股上市公司作为观测样本,实证考察了上市公司现金股利政策对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现,现金股利分配倾向与分配水平均与股价崩盘风险显著负相关；以会计稳健性水平作为信息披露质量的替代变量进一步研究后发现,信息披露质量的提升显著增强了现金股利分配与股价崩盘风险之间的敏感性。经验研究结果表明,我国上市公司的现金股利分配是公司治理改善的结果,从而支持了股利的“结果”模型,而非“替代”模型；同时也为现金股利政策与股市风险的相关性研究提供了增量的理论成果和经验证据,研究结论对于完善上市公司的现金股利政策和防范股市风险提供了一定的借鉴意义。

英文摘要:

      Stock price crash has seriously disturbed the healthy and orderly development of China's capital market, and has also damaged the interests of investors and corporate value. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the mechanism to prevent the risk of stock price crash. Using the A-share listed companies during the years from 2007 to 2013 as the observed sample, this paper empirically examines the impact of cash dividend policy in the listed companies upon stock price crash risk. The study finds that the orientation and extent of cash dividend distribution and the stock price crash risk are negatively correlated. Taking accounting conservatism as substitution variable of information disclosure quality, the further study finds that the improved quality of information disclosure enhances the sensitivity of cash dividend distribution to stock price crash risk. The empirical research results show that the distribution of cash dividends in the listed companies is the result of improved corporate governance, which supports “result” model instead of “alternative” model. Meanwhile, this study provides the theoretical outcome and empirical evidence of increment to the correlation research between cash dividend policy and stock market risk. The research findings provide some reference for the cash dividend policy and stock market risk prevention in the listed companies. 