新常态下中国经济的矛盾与出路

Contradiction and Solution in China's Economy under New Normal

中文关键词:  新常态  中等收入陷阱  产能过剩  开放型经济体制  供给侧改革  经济结构调整

英文关键词:New Normal  middle-income trap  overcapacity  open economy system  supply-side reform  economic restructuring

中文摘要:

      在经历了长期高速增长后,中国经济步入新的发展阶段。目前,经济下行压力增大,传统制造业产能严重过剩,货币宽松产生的大量流动性不仅没有有效流入实体经济,反倒推高了先行经济领域价格。随着人均收入水平提高,消费结构升级,供给结构与需求结构的矛盾加剧,要求加快产业结构调整,而在调结构中,又面临着多重经济悖论并存的局面。与此同时,国际经贸规则正在深刻变迁；美国强力推行遏制中国的亚太战略,推动制造业回流,加速了全球价值链重构,使进入中国市场的部分外商投资撤离风险上升；日本实行的安倍经济学效果存疑,英国脱欧加剧了欧盟的不稳定性,使欧盟经济进一步雪上加霜,日欧经济颓势短期无法改变。内外部经济环境的变化给中国带来新的挑战和机遇。中国要实现经济转型升级,跨越中等收入陷阱,必须统筹国内经济政策,实行政策之间的联动,通过供给侧改革,提升全要素生产率,增加有效供给,助推经济结构调整,完善开放型经济体制。

英文摘要:

      After a long period of rapid growth, China's economy is entering a new stage of development. At present, the downward pressure on the economy has increased and there is a serious overcapacity in the traditional manufacturing industry. The large amount of liquidity from monetary-easing has failed to flow into the real economy effectively, but it has pushed up the prices in the leading economic fields instead. With the increase of per capita income level and the upgrading of consumption structure, there exists an exacerbated contradiction in supply structure and demand structure, which requires to speed up the industrial restructuring. However, in restructuring, there is the coexistence of multiple economic paradox. At the same time, there are profound changes in international economic and trade rules. The United States of America strives to carry out the Asia-Pacific strategy to contain China, promote the back flow of manufacturing industry and accelerate the reconstruction of global value chain, which makes some foreign investment entering China's market face the increased risk to evacuate. The effect of Abenomics adopted by Japan is questionable. The Brexit (combination of “British” and “exit” referring to the UK withdrawal from the EU) has aggravated the EU instability, which worsens the EU economy. The economic downturn in both Japan and the EU cannot be changed in a short term. The changes in both internal and external environments have brought new challenges and opportunities to China. In order to achieve the economic transformation and upgrading to go beyond the middle-income trap, China must coordinate the domestic economic policies, implement the linkage among policies, improve the total factor productivity to increase the effective supply through the supply-side reform, boost the economic structural adjustment and improve the system of open economy. 