新常态下中国宏观经济形势分析

Situation Analysis of Macro Economy under China's New Normal

中文关键词:  新常态  通货膨胀  经济下行  宏观政策  体制改革  产能过剩  中等收入陷阱

英文关键词:New Normal  inflation  the economic downturn  macro policy  institutional reform  excess production capacity  middle-income trap

中文摘要:

      自2010年10月我国政府公布从全面反危机的扩张政策退出后,中国宏观经济运行形成了一系列新特点,被称为“新常态”。新常态下中国经济增长发生了新变化,具体表现为新起点、新机遇、新条件、新挑战四个方面。但同时新常态下中国经济出现“滞涨”的可能性增大,较长时间内可能会出现通货膨胀和经济“下行”双重风险并存的局面。针对这一特点,我国实施“积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策”的组合宏观经济政策,并进一步探讨了财政政策与货币政策松紧搭配、反向组合中的政策力度。在这个新的历史起点上,我国须全面深化改革,进一步明确全面深化改革的总目标,全方位部署改革任务,坚持社会主义市场经济方向。 

英文摘要:

      Since October 2010 when Chinese government claimed to quit from comprehensive anti-crisis expansion policy, China's macro-economy has been operating with series of new features called “New Normal”. In the context of China's New Normal, new changes have taken place in the economic growth, specifically speaking in four aspects:new beginning, new opportunity, new condition and new challenge. Meanwhile, under New Normal, “stagnation” is more likely to occur in China's economy. In a long period, the inflation and the economic “downturn” are likely to coexist. Accordingly, China adopts the macroeconomic policy mix of “proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy”, with further discussion on the policy strengthness of elastic matching and reverse combination of monetary and fiscal policies. At the new historical starting point, China must deepen the reforms comprehensively, make more clear the general goal of Comprehensively Deepening Reforms, deploy all-round reform tasks, and adhere to the orientation of socialist market economy. 