美联储加息与新兴市场资本流动:历史经验分析

US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike and the Capital Flow in Emerging Markets:Historical Experience

中文关键词:  新兴市场  国际资本流动  加息周期  拉动—推动

英文关键词:emerging markets  international capital flow  interest rate hike cycle  push-pull

中文摘要:

      近期各界密切关注美联储加息对新兴市场资本流动的影响,但对其影响程度众说纷纭。文章回顾了20世纪80年代以来历次美联储加息周期中新兴市场资本流动波动的不同表现,并结合“拉动—推动”因素做出解释。从历史经验比较来看,当前美国经济增速有下降趋势,均衡利率下降使加息节奏变得较为温和,美国吸引资本回流的力量并不是很强,新兴市场宏观经济风险基本可控,但部分新兴市场国家经济增速显著下滑,其自身因素的影响更值得关注。 

英文摘要:

      The effect of the federal interest rate hike on capital flow in emerging market has become a popular but controversial topic. This paper reviewed the different characteristic of the fluctuation of the capital flow in emerging market during each federal interest cycle since 1980s, and explained the different characteristics using the pull-push framework. Currently, U.S. economic growth rate is declining, and the decline in equilibrium interest rate has slowed down the interest rate hike, the factor that pulls the capital back is not so strong in U.S.; the macroeconomic risk of emerging markets is under control; however, the economic growth rate of some emerging market countries has dropped dramatically, its influence deserves more attention.