后金融危机时代货币政策与国际资本流动研究进展

Research Developments in Monetary Policy and International Capital Flows in the Post-Financial Crisis Era

中文关键词:  国际资本流动  货币政策独立性  溢出效应  资本管制  新兴市场经济体

英文关键词:international capital flows  monetary policy independence  spillover effect  capital account management  emerging market economies

中文摘要:

      金融危机后,国际资本流动的结构和形态发生了显著变化。一方面,由于发达国家普遍实施以量化宽松为代表的非常规货币政策导致超低利率,国际流动性为“追逐收益”大规模流向新兴市场经济体。另一方面,新兴市场经济体企业以美元等发达国家货币在国际金融市场上发行债券,将发达经济体的货币政策和融资条件传递到国内。新兴市场经济体金融监管的难度以及经济的脆弱性大幅增加,货币政策的独立性也受到极大的挑战。在对文献进行梳理的基础上,本文认为短期内一定程度的资本管制政策有助于防范国际资本的骤进骤出,提高经济体的整体稳定性。 

英文摘要:

      The structure and pattern of international capital flows have changed significantly after the global financial crisis. On the one hand, unconventional monetary policies, especially quantitative easing, conducted by advanced economies have led to ultra-low interest rates, which have stimulated the international capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) to search for yields. On the other hand, through issuing corporate bonds in the international financial markets, firms from EMEs have transmitted both the monetary policy and financial conditions to domestic market. As a result, the difficulty of financial regulation and vulnerability of the economy have increased substantially, and the independence of monetary policy has been undermined. Based on the latest literature, this article points out that in the short run certain degrees of capital control measures could mitigate the sudden capital inflows and outflows, and strengthen the overall stability of the economy. 