面向“十三五”的中国服务业:总结与展望

Summary and Outlook for China‘s Service Industry in Face of “13th-Five-Year Plan”

中文关键词:  服务业  服务经济  服务业预测  服务业战略

英文关键词:service industry  service economy  forecast of service industry  service industry strategy

中文摘要:

      服务业在稳增长、促就业、优结构中正在发挥着越来越重要的作用。“十二五”时期我国服务业快速发展,服务业预期目标有望超额完成,但也面临着附加值率低、结构不合理和体制机制亟待完善等问题。根据国内外服务业发展经验,利用服务业使用法预测的结果表明:到2020年,我国服务业增加值比重和就业比重将分别达到55.00%和45.39%；“十三五”时期末,服务业增加值比重和就业比重将分别增加5.67和5.05个百分点,年均分别增加1.13和1.01个百分点。服务业的主导地位将进一步巩固,有望迎来“服务经济时代”。未来应以“激励创新,跨界融合,空间集聚,双向开放”的战略思路引领我国服务业的发展。

英文摘要:

      Service Industry is playing a more and more important role in stabilizing growth, promoting employment and optimizing structure. During the “12th-Five-Plan” period, China‘s service industry has developed rapidly, and the original target is expected to accomplish. However, it also faces the problems such as low value-added rate, improper structure, institution and mechanism in need of urgent perfection, etc. Based on the experiences in the development of service industry both at home and abroad, the forecast with the use of “method of operation” in service industry indicates the results:by 2020, the ratio will reach 55.00% and 45.39% respectively for the added value and the employment in China‘s service industry; by the end of the “13th-Five-Year Plan” period, the ratio will increase by 5.67% and 5.05% respectively for the added value and the employment in China‘s service industry with an average growth rate at 1.13% and 1.01% respectively per year. The leading position of service industry will be further strengthened, and the ‘Service Economy Era’ is expected to come. In the future, a strategic plan based on “stimulating innovation, border-crossing integration, spatial aggregation and two-way opening” should be a guide to the development of China‘s service industry. 