“变老”是否会阻碍“变富”——基于OLG模型的理论与经验实证

Can “Getting Old” Impede “Getting Rich”? ——An Empirical Study and A Theory Based on the OLG Model

中文关键词:  人口老龄化  个体行为调整  平均产出水平  OLG模型  广义脉冲估计

英文关键词:population aging  the adjustment of individual behavior  GDP Per capita  OLG model  generalized pulse estimation

中文摘要:

      中国等发展中国家正面临老龄化问题的困扰,但传统老龄化国家的经济社会发展却呈明显的“老而未衰”特征。文献综述的结果表明,这种与传统观点相背离的事实需要在个体行为调整的视角下予以解释。基于此,文章构建了人口老龄化内生的OLG模型,讨论老龄化进程中个体行为的调整方向,并利用法国的时间序列数据展开经验实证。理论和经验实证结果均表明,预期寿命的变化将引起储蓄率、劳动时间投入和人力资本积累水平的持续提升,以及生育率的先降后升。这说明老龄化会对平均产出水平有持续的正向影响,并将有利于我国正确认识和有效应对人口老龄化挑战。

英文摘要:

      Such developing countries as China are perplexed by population aging, but evidence from traditional aging countries shows that population aging does not necessarily lead to economic crash. According to the literature review, the fact can be explained from a perspective of coordination of individual behaviors. Based on these, an OLG model with endogenous population aging is constructed to study the adjustment of individual behavior in population aging process. Meanwhile, an empirical study is carried out with the time-series data from France. The results show that increase in life expectancy can lead to the increase of saving rate, time spent on working and human capital accumulation. The increase in life expectancy also leads to fertility rate decreasing first and increasing afterwards. The result also shows that population aging can have positive impact on GDP per capita, which can help China understand correctly and deal with effectively the challenge brought about by population aging. 